Namuhla ku-Decoder, ngikhuluma no-Ronan Farrow, omunye wezihlabani ezinkulu zokubika ngophenyo osebenzayo namuhla. Waphula indaba kaHarvey Weinstein, phakathi kwabanye abaningi, abaningi. Futhi ngesonto eledlule, yena kanye no-Andrew Marantz ongumbhali bashicilele isici esimangalisayo se-deep-dive ku-New Yorker mayelana ne-OpenAI CEO uSam Altman, ukwethembeka kwakhe, kanye nokukhuphuka kwe-OpenAI ngokwayo.
Inothi elilodwa ngaphambi kokuba siqhubekele phambili lapha—I-New Yorker yashicilela leyo ndaba futhi mina noRonan saba nale ngxoxo ngaphambi kokuba sazi izinga eligcwele lokuhlaselwa kwekhaya lika-Altman, ngakho ngeke usizwe sikhuluma ngalokho ngokuqondile. Kodwa ukukusho nje, ngicabanga ukuthi udlame lwanoma yiluphi uhlobo alwamukelekile, lokhu kuhlaselwa kuka-Sam akwamukelekile, nokuthi uhlobo lokungabi nasizo abantu abaluzwayo, oluholela kulolu hlobo lodlame, ngokwalo alwamukeleki, futhi lufanele ukucutshungulwa okuningi okuvela kokubili embonini nakubaholi bethu bezombangazwe. Ngethemba ukuthi lokho kucacile.
Cishe ababhalisile, ungakhohlwa ukuthi uthola ukufinyelela okukhethekile ku-Decoder ngaphandle kwezikhangiso noma yikuphi lapho uthola khona ama-podcast akho. Shona lapha. Hhayi obhalisile? Ungabhalisa lapha.
Konke okushiwo, kuningi okuzungeza i-Altman okuwumdlalo olungile wokubika okuqinile - uhlobo lokubika uRonan no-Andrew abazimisele ukukwenza. Ngenxa yokuduma kwe-ChatGPT, u-Altman useqhamuke njengenhloko ebonakala kakhulu embonini ye-AI, njengoba eguqule ilebhu yocwaningo eyake yaba yinkampani ezimele ecishe ibe ngamadola ayizigidigidi eminyakeni embalwa nje. Kepha inganekwane ka-Altman ingqubuzana kakhulu, ichazwa ngokulinganayo ngamandla akhe okusebenzelana asobala kanye nokuthambekela kwakhe okubikiwe kokuthi…
Indaba ingaphezu kwamagama ayi-17,000 ubude, futhi ngokungangabazeki iqukethe i-akhawunti eqinisekile yalokho okwenzeka ngo-2023 lapho ibhodi labaqondisi le-OpenAI lixosha u-Altman ngokuzumayo ngezinsolo zokuqamba amanga, kuphela ukuthi acishe aqashwe kabusha ngaso leso sikhathi. Kuphinde kungene shí empilweni yomuntu siqu ka-Altman, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwakhe, ukuthanda kwakhe imali yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye nokuzindla kwakhe ngokuziphatha kwakhe kwangaphambilini nezici zobuntu eziholele ekutheni omunye umthombo uthi "wayengavinjwanga iqiniso." Ngiphakamisa ngempela ukuthi uyifunde yonke indaba; Ngisola ukuthi kuzokhulunywa ngakho iminyaka eminingi ezayo.
U-Ronan wakhuluma no-Altman izikhathi eziningi phakathi nezinyanga eziyi-18 azichitha ebika lesi siqeshana, ngakho-ke enye yezinto ezibalulekile engangifisa ukwazi ngayo ukuthi ngabe kukhona yini ushintsho aluzwayo ku-Altman ngaleso sikhathi. Phela, kuningi okwenzekile ku-AI, kwezobuchwepheshe, nasemhlabeni ngonyaka odlule nesigamu.
Uzomuzwa uRonan ekhuluma ngalokho ngqo, kanye nomuzwa wakhe wokuthi abantu sebezimisele kakhulu ukukhuluma ngekhono lika-Altman lokwelula iqiniso. Abantu sebeqala ukuzibuza, ngokuzwakalayo nakumarekhodi, ukuthi ukuziphatha kwabantu abafana no-Altman kumayelana, hhayi nje okwe-AI noma ubuchwepheshe kodwa nekusasa elihlangene lomphakathi.
Kulungile: U-Ronan Farrow ku-Sam Altman, AI, kanye neqiniso. Nazo-ke.
Le nhlolokhono ihlelwe kancane ukuze ibe yinde futhi icace.
Ronan Farrow, uyintatheli ephenyayo futhi unikele ku-New Yorker. Siyakwamukela kusiqophisi.
Ngiyajabula ukuba lapha. Ngiyabonga ngokuba nami.
Ngijabule kakhulu ukukhuluma nawe. Usanda kubhala isiqephu esikhulu se-New Yorker. Kuyiphrofayili ka-Sam Altman futhi, uhlobo ngayo, i-OpenAI. Engikufunda ngakho ukuthi, njengoba kwenza zonke izici ezinhle, yona, ngokubika okuqinile, iqinisekisa imizwa eminingi abantu ababenayo ngoSam Altman isikhathi eside kakhulu. Ukushicilele ngokusobala, uthole ukusabela kuyo. Uzizwa kanjani ngakho njengamanje?
Hhayi-ke, ngiye ngakhuthazeka, empeleni, ngezinga ephule ngalo esikhathini lapho umnotho wokunaka uluhlobo lwe-schizophrenic futhi ungajulile. Lena indaba, ngokubona kwami, esithinta sonke. Futhi lapho ngichitha unyaka nengxenye yempilo yami, futhi umbhali engikanye naye, u-Andrew Marantz, naye echitha leso sikhathi sakhe, ezama ngempela ukwenza okuthile okucutshungulwayo nokucophelelayo, kuhlale kungenxa yokuthi ngizwa sengathi kunezinkinga ezinkulu zesakhiwo ezithinta abantu ngaphandle komuntu ngamunye kanye nenkampani esenhliziyweni yendaba.
U-Sam Altman, ngokumelene nokwasemuva kwesiko le-Silicon Valley hype kanye neziqalo ezithola ibhaluni ekulinganisweni okukhulu okusekelwe ezithembisweni ezingase zenzeke noma zingenzeki esikhathini esizayo, kanye nokwemukelwa okwandayo kwesiko lomsunguli ocabanga ukuthi ukutshela amaqembu ahlukene izinto ezingqubuzanayo kuyisici, hhayi isici.bug...Ngisho naphezu kwalokho okwasemuva, u-Sam Altman uyindaba engavamile lapho wonke umuntu eSilicon Valley olindele lezo zinto engakwazi ukuyeka ukukhuluma ngalo mbuzo wokwethembeka kwakhe nokwethembeka kwakhe.
Besazi kakade ukuthi uxoshiwe ngenxa yezinsolo zokungathembeki noma amanga amaningi okusolwa ukuthi uqamba amanga. Kodwa ngokumangalisayo, naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi kube nokubika okuhle, uKeach Hagey wenze umsebenzi omuhle kulokhu. UKaren Hao wenze umsebenzi omuhle kulokhu. Kwakungekho ngempela ukuqonda okuqondile kwamaphuzu angempela asolwayo kanye nezizathu zokuthi kungani lezo zingaveli emehlweni omphakathi.
Ngakho-ke iphuzu lokuqala ukuthi ngizizwa ngiduduzwa iqiniso lokuthi ezinye zalezo zikhala olwazini lwethu lomphakathi, futhi ngisho nolwazi lwabangaphakathi baseSilicon Valley, manje sezigcwaliswe kancane kancane. Ezinye zezizathu zokuthi kube khona izikhala zivalwe kancane.
Sibika ngezimo lapho abantu abangaphakathi kule nkampani bezwa sengathi izinto zifihliwe noma azibhalwanga ngamabomu. Enye yezinto ezintsha kule ndaba uphenyo lwenkampani yezomthetho olubalulekile olwenziwa yi-WilmerHale, okusobala ukuthi iyifemu yabameli esezingeni eliphezulu, ekholekayo, enkulu eyenza uphenyo lwe-Enron kanye ne-WorldCom, okuyinto, ngendlela, yonke yayiyi-voluminous, njengamakhulu amakhasi ashicilelwe. UWilmerHale wenze lolu phenyo olwalufunwa ngamalungu ebhodi ayexoshe u-Altman njengombandela wokuthi bahambe ngesikhathi ebaxosha, wabe esebuya. Futhi ngokumangalisayo - emehlweni ochwepheshe abaningi bezomthetho engikhulume nabo, futhi ngokushaqisayo emehlweni abantu abaningi kule nkampani - bakugcine kungabhalwanga. Konke okwake kwavela kulokho kwakuyinkulumo yabezindaba enamagama angu-800 evela ku-OpenAI eyayichaza okwenzeka njengokuwohloka kwethemba. Futhi saqinisekisa ukuthi lokhu kugcinwa ezingxoxweni zomlomo.
Kunezimo lapho, ngokwesibonelo, ilungu lebhodi libonakala lifuna ukuvota liphikisana nokuguqulwa lisuka efomini lokuqala le-OpenAI elingenzi nzuzo libe ibhizinisi lenzuzo, futhi kuqoshwa njengokuziba. Kufana nommeli emhlanganweni othi, "Hhayi-ke, lokho kungadala ukucutshungulwa okukhulu." Futhi umuntu ofuna ukuvota ngokumelene naye uqoshwa njengokuzibayo kukho konke ukubonakala. Kukhona ukungqubuzana okuyiqiniso. I-OpenAI ifuna ngenye indlela, njengoba ungase ucabange. Zonke lezi yizimo lapho unenkampani okuthi, nge-akhawunti yayo, ibambe ikusasa lethu ezandleni zayo.
Izigxobo zokuphepha zibucayi kangangokuthi azikapheli. Lesi yisizathu esenza ukuthi le nkampani yasungulwa njengenhlangano engenzi nzuzo egxile kwezokuphepha, nalapho izinto bezifihlwa ngendlela yokuthi abantu abathembekile kule ndawo bayithole ingaphansi kochwepheshe. Futhi ubhangqa lokho ngemuva lapho kunokulangazelela okuncane kakhulu kwezepolitiki kwemithetho enengqondo. Ngicabanga ukuthi yisimo esivuthayo kakhulu.
Iphuzu kimina akukhona nje ukuthi u-Sam Altman ufanelwe yile mibuzo kakhulu. Okunye futhi ukuthi noma yibaphi kulaba bafana abakulo mkhakha, kanye nezibalo eziningi ezibalulekile, zikhombisa, uma kungeyona le nto ewumcabango, okusolwa ukuthi uqamba amanga ngaso sonke isikhathi, ngokuqinisekile izinga elithile lokucabanga kobuhlanga kuya phansi, lapho abantu ababevikela ukuphepha baye bamanzisa lezo zibopho futhi wonke umuntu usesimweni somjaho.
Ngicabanga ukuthi, njengoba sibheka ukuvuza kwakamuva kwe-Anthropic, kukhona umuntu obuza umbuzo wokuthi ubani okufanele abe nomunwe enkinobho kulesi siqeshana. Impendulo ithi, uma singenakho ukwengamela okunengqondo, ngicabanga ukuthi kufanele sibuze imibuzo ebucayi futhi sizame ukuveza ulwazi oluningi ngendlela esingakwazi ngayo ngabo bonke laba bafana. Ngakho-ke ngiye ngakhuthazwa yilokho okuzwakala njengengxoxo ezuzisayo ngalokho, noma iziqalo zayo.
Isizathu sokuthi ngikubuze kanjalo ukuthi usebenzele lokhu unyaka nesigamu. Ukhulume, ngiyakholwa, nabantu abayi-100 nombhali osebenza naye, u-Andrew. Yisikhathi eside leso ukuthi indaba iphekwe. Ngicabanga ngonyaka odlule nengxenye ku-AI ikakhulukazi, futhi umfana, izimo zengqondo nezindinganiso zabo bonke laba balingisi zishintshe ngokushesha kakhulu.
Mhlawumbe akekho odlula u-Sam Altman, owaqala njengomnqobi ozenzakalelayo ngoba wayekhiphe i-ChatGPT futhi wonke umuntu wayecabanga ukuthi lokho kuzovele kuthathe izintambo ku-Google. Futhi-ke i-Google yaphendula, okubonakala kubamangaza ukuthi i-Google izozama ukuvikela ibhizinisi layo, mhlawumbe elinye lamabhizinisi angcono kakhulu emlandweni wezobuchwepheshe, uma kungenjalo umlando webhizinisi. I-Anthropic yanquma ukuthi izogxila ebhizinisini. Kubukeka sengathi kuhola phambililapho ngoba ukusetshenziswa kwebhizinisi kwe-AI kuphezulu kakhulu.
Manje, i-OpenAI isigxilisa kabusha umkhiqizo wayo kude nokuthi "sizothatha i-Google" iye ku-Codex, futhi bazongena ebhizinisini. Angazi ngempela ukuthi, ngesikhathi sokubika kwakho onyakeni odlule nesigamu, uma kuzwakala sengathi abalingiswa obukhuluma nabo bashintshile? Njengesimo sabo sengqondo nezindinganiso zabo, ingabe lokho kwashintsha?
Yebo. Okokuqala, ngicabanga ukuthi ukugxeka okucutshungulwa kulesi siqeshana, okuvela kubantu abaningi ngaphakathi kwalezi zinkampani okwamanje - ukuthi le mboni, naphezu kwezingqinamba ezikhona, yehlela into ethile yomjaho ukuya phansi kwezokuphepha futhi lapho ijubane liphakamisa yonke into - lokho kukhathazeka sekukhule kakhulu. Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi lokho kukhathazeka kuye kwaqinisekiswa kakhulu njengoba unyaka nesigamu odlule kwenzekile. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izimo zengqondo mayelana no-Sam Altman zishintshe ngokuqondile. Ngenkathi siqala ukukhuluma nemithombo yalokhu, abantu babenemizwa ngempela yokucashunwa ngalokhu futhi baqhubeke nerekhodi ngalokhu.
Ekupheleni kombiko wethu, usunendikimba yokubika lapho abantu bekhuluma ngalokhu ngokusobala futhi ngokusobala, futhi unamalungu ebhodi asho izinto ezinjengokuthi, "Ungumqambimanga wezifo. Ungumuntu wezenhlalo." Kunemibono eyahlukene kusukela kokuthi, "Lokhu kuyingozi uma kubhekwa izinto zokuphepha, futhi sidinga abaholi balobu buchwepheshe abanobuqotho obuphakeme," kuze kufike ekuthandeni, "Khohlwa izinto zokuphepha, lokhu ukuziphatha okungamukeleki kunoma yisiphi isikhulu sanoma iyiphi inkampani enkulu, ukuthi ivele idale ukungasebenzi okuningi."
Ngakho-ke ingxoxo isibe sobala kakhulu ngendlela ezwakala sengathi iphuzile, kodwa ethokozisayo ngomqondo owodwa. Futhi u-Sam Altman, ngosizo lwakhe… Ucezu lulungile futhi lunomusa, ngingasho, ku-Sam. Lolu akulona uhlobo lwesiqeshana lapho kwakunezinto eziningi "ezikutholile". Ngichithe amahora amaningi, amaningi ngikhuluma naye ocingweni njengoba sasiqeda lokhu futhi ngamuzwa ekhuluma.
Njengoba ungase ucabange, esiqeshini esinjengalesi, akuzona zonke izinto ezitholakalayo. Ezinye zalezo zimo kuleli kwakungenxa yokuthi ngangilalela ngobuqotho. Futhi uma u-Sam empeleni ebeka ingxabano engizizwa ngithwele amanzi, ukuthi into ethile, noma ngabe iyiqiniso, ingaba i-sensationalist, ngenze iphutha ekugcineni le nqubo yokuhlola nokukala. Ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi lokho kwamukelwa ngendlela efanele, futhi ngiyethemba nje ukuthi leli rekhodi eliyiqiniso eliqoqwe kulesi sikhathi lingavusa ingxoxo ejulile mayelana nesidingo sokwengamela.
Lowo ngumbuzo wami olandelayo. Ngicabanga ukuthi ukhulume noSam izikhathi eziyishumi nambili phakathi nokubika le ndaba. Futhi, lokho kuyizingxoxo eziningi esikhathini eside. Ucabanga ukuthi u-Sam ushintshile ngesikhathi sokubika onyakeni nesigamu odlule?
Yebo. Ngicabanga ukuthi esinye sezigatshana ezithakazelisa kakhulu kulokhu ukuthi u-Sam Altman naye ukhuluma ngalesi sici ngokusobala kakhulu kunangaphambili. Ukuma kukaSam kulesi siqeshana akufani nokuthi, "Akukho lutho lapho, lokhu akulona iqiniso; angazi ukuthi ukhuluma ngani." Isimo anaso ukuthi uthi lokhu kungenxa yokuthambekela kokujabulisa abantu kanye nohlobo oluthile lokwenyanya izingxabano. Uyavuma ukuthi kumbangele izinkinga, ikakhulukazi ekuqaleni komsebenzi wakhe.
Uthi, “Hhayi-ke, ngidlula lapho, noma ngokwezinga elithile ngidlule lapho.” Ngicabanga ukuthi okungithakazelisa kakhulu ukuhlangana kwabantu esikhulume nabo ababengebona nje uhlobo lwabakhulumeli bezokuphepha, hhayi nje abacwaningi bezobuchwepheshe abacashile abavame ukuba nalokhu kukhathazeka ngokuphepha, kodwa futhi abatshalizimali besikhathi esikhulu abahlakaniphile. Bangabasekeli bakaSam, okuthi kwezinye izikhathi babuke lo mbuzo futhi bakhulume ngokuthi wabamba iqhaza elikhulu ekubuyeni kwakhe ngemva kokudutshulwa. Manje, kulo mbuzo wokuthi ngabe useguqukile yini, nokuthi lolo shintsho lubaluleke kangakanani, bathi, “Hhayi-ke, samnikeza ithuba lokungabaza ngaleso sikhathi.”
Ngicabanga ngomunye umtshali-zimali ovelele owathi, “Kodwa kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, kubonakala kusobala ukuthi akazange akhishwe ngemuva kwesigxobo sezinkuni,” okwakuyinkulumo eyayisetshenziswa yilo, ngokwezinga okwakudingeka ngalo. Ngenxa yalokho, kubonakala sengathi lesi sekuyisici esizinzile. Lokhu sikubona ngendlela eqhubekayo. Ungabheka amanye amabhizinisi amakhulu we-OpenAIubudlelwano kanye nendlela abathwala ngayo isisindo salokho ukungathembani ngendlela eqhubekayo.
NjengeMicrosoft, ukhuluma nabaphathi laphaya, futhi banokukhathazeka okukhulu futhi muva nje okudale ukukhathazeka. Kukhona lesi sibonelo lapho, ngalo lolo suku i-OpenAI iqinisekisa ukuhluka kwayo neMicrosoft maqondana namamodeli e-AI angenasisekelo futhi imemezela isivumelwano esisha ne-Amazon esiphathelene nokuthengisa izixazululo zebhizinisi zokwakha ama-agent e-AI anesimo, okusho ukuthi banenkumbulo.
Ukhuluma nabantu beMicrosoft, futhi bafana, "Lokho akunakwenzeka ukwenza ngaphandle kokuxhumana nezinto eziyisisekelo esinesivumelwano sokukhethekile." Ngakho-ke leso ngesinye sezibonelo eziningi ezincane lapho le mfanelo igxile emisebenzini yebhizinisi eqhubekayo ngaso sonke isikhathi futhi iyisihloko esikhathazayo ngaphakathi kwebhodi le-OpenAI, ngaphakathi kwe-executive suite, kanye nomphakathi obanzi wezobuchwepheshe.
Ulokhu uthi “imfanelo” leyo. Kunomugqa endabeni ozwakala kimi njengethisisi, futhi uyincazelo yesici oyichazayo. Ukuthi “u-Sam Altman akaboshiwe iqiniso” nokuthi “unezici ezimbili cishe ezingakaze zibonwe kumuntu oyedwa: eyokuqala isifiso esinamandla sokujabulisa abantu, ukuthandwa kunoma yikuphi ukusebenzelana okunikezwayo, kanti okwesibili ukuntula cishe kwenhlalo ukukhathazeka ngemiphumela engase iqhamuke ekukhohliseni othile.”
Kufanele ngikutshele, lowo musho ngiwufunde izikhathi ezingu-500, futhi ngazama ukucabanga njalo ukuthi abantu bafuna ukuthandwa futhi ngingaphatheki kabi lapho bezwa amanga. Futhi angikwazanga ukwenza isimo sami esingokomzwelo siqonde ukuthi lezo zinto zingaba khona kanjani kumuntu oyedwa. Ukhulume kakhulu noSam, futhi ukhulume nabantu abaye bahlangabezana nalezi zici. Ukwenza kanjani?
Yebo. Kuyathakazelisa ezingeni lomuntu ngoba ngisondela emigwaqweni yokubika kanje ngigxile ekwenzeni umuntu noma ubani osenhliziyweni yakho futhi ngifune ukuqonda okujulile nozwela. Lapho ngizama ukusondela kulokhu ngokombono womuntu futhi ngithi, "Hhayi-ke, lokhu kungangiphatha kabi uma abantu abaningi engisebenze nabo bethi ngingumqambimanga. Usithwala kanjani leso sisindo? Ukhuluma kanjani ngalokho kwezokwelapha? Ithini indaba ozitshela yona ngalokho?"
Nginohlobo oluthile, ngokubona kwami, mhlawumbe i-West Coast platitudes ngalokho njengokuthi, “Yebo, ngiyawuthanda umsebenzi wokuphefumula.” Kodwa akulona uhlobo oluningi lomqondo wokuziphendulela ojulile engicabanga ukuthi cishe abaningi bethu bebengaba nawo ukube besibona lolu hlobo lwempendulo mayelana nokuziphatha kwethu kanye nokuphatha kwethu abantu.
Ngicabanga ukuthi lokho kuya empendulweni ebanzi yombuzo, futhi. U-Sam ugomela ngokuthi lesi sici sibangele izinkinga, kodwa futhi ukuthi siyingxenye yalokho okumnike amandla okusheshisa ukukhula kwe-OpenAI kangangokuthi uyakwazi ukuhlanganisa nokujabulisa amaqembu ahlukene abantu. Uhlale eqinisekisa zonke lezi zifunda ezishayisanayo ukuthi ezikukhathalele yizona azikhathalele. Futhi lokho kungaba ikhono eliwusizo ngempela kumsunguli. Ngike ngakhuluma nabatshalizimali abathi, “Hhayi-ke, mhlawumbe kuyikhono elingasebenziseki kangako ekuphatheni inkampani ngoba itshala ukungezwani okukhulu.”
Kodwa ngasohlangothini luka-Sam lomuntu siqu, ngicabanga ukuthi into engiyibambayo lapho ngizama ukuxhumana nabantu ukuntuleka okusobala kokungqubuzana okujulile, ukucabanga, nokuziphendulela, okwazisa futhi lawo mandla amakhulu noma isibopho senkampani elungiselela i-IPO.
Ungumuntu, ngokwamazwi omunye owayeyilungu lebhodi okuthiwa u-Sue Yoon, oserekhodini esiqeshini esithi kuze kube “eqophelweni lokungabi nankinga” ibinzana alisebenzisayo, okwaziyo ukukholelwa ngempela iqiniso eliguquguqukayo lezindawo zakhe zokuthengisa noma uyakwazi ukuzikholisa ngazo. Noma okungenani uma engazikholelwa, uyakwazi ukuzibhuqa ngaphandle kokungabaza okunengqondo.
Ngicabanga ukuthi le nto okhuluma ngayo, lapho wena noma mina esingase sibe khona, njengoba sisho into futhi sibona ukuthi ishayisana nesinye isiqinisekiso esisenzile, singaba nesikhathi sokuzibamba yiqhwa noma sizihlole. Ngicabanga ukuthi lokho akwenzeki kuye. Futhi kukhona isiko elibanzi le-Silicon Valley hype nesiko lomsunguli elihlanganisa lokho.
Kumnandi. I-Verge yakhelwe phezu kwamanani angakanani ekubuyekezweni komkhiqizouhlelo. Kuyinhliziyo yalokho esikwenzayo lapha. Ngibamba isigidintathu samadola we-Apple R&D kanye ngonyaka bese ngithi, “Le foni iyisikhombisa.” Futhi kwenza kube semthethweni konke ukubika kwethu nemibono yethu kwenye indawo. Sinomsebenzi wokuhlola, futhi sichitha isikhathi esiningi sibheka imikhiqizo ye-AI sithi, “Ingabe iyasebenza?”
Lokho kuzwakala sengathi kuyashoda engxoxweni eminingi nge-AI njengoba kunjalo namuhla. Kunezingxoxo ezingapheli mayelana nokuthi yini engase ikwazi ukuyenza, ukuthi ingaba yingozi kangakanani. Bese ubhoboza phansi, bese uthi, “Ngabe iyayenza ngempela into okufanele iyenze namuhla?” Kwezinye izimo, impendulo inguyebo. Kodwa ezimweni eziningi, impendulo ingucha.
Lokho kuzwakala sengathi kuxhumene nesiko le-hype olichazayo kanye nomuzwa wokuthi, kahle, uma uthi kuzokwenza okuthile kodwa akwenzeki, futhi othile aphatheke kabi, lokho kulungile ngoba singena entweni elandelayo. Lokho kwenzeka esikhathini esidlule. Futhi ku-AI ikakhulukazi, uSam muhle kakhulu ekwenzeni izithembiso ezinhle.
Kuleli sonto nje, ngicabanga ukuthi ngalo lolo suku okwashicilelwa ngalo udaba lwakho, i-OpenAI ikhiphe idokhumenti yenqubomgomo eyayithi kufanele sicabange kabusha ngenkontileka yezenhlalo futhi sibe nezinzuzo ze-AI ezivela kuhulumeni. Lesi isithembiso esihle sokuthi obunye ubuchwepheshe bungalilolonga kanjani ikusasa lomhlaba nokuthi siphila kanjani, futhi konke lokho kuncike kubuchwepheshe obusebenza ngendlela okungenzeka ukuthi buzosebenza ngayo noma okufanele busebenze.
Wake wamthola u-Sam engabaza i-AI ephenduka i-AGI noma i-superintelligence noma efika entanjeni? Ngoba iyona nto engizibuza ngayo kakhulu. Ingabe kukhona ukucabanga mayelana nokuthi lobu buchwepheshe obuyisisekelo bungakwazi ukwenza zonke izinto abathi bungakwazi ukuzenza?
Yisethi yemibuzo efanele. Kukhona ochwepheshe abathembekile esikhulume nabo kule nhlangano yokubika - futhi ngokusobala u-Sam Altman akayena oyedwa; ungumuntu webhizinisi - othi indlela u-Sam akhuluma ngayo ngomugqa wesikhathi walobu buchwepheshe isisekude. Kukhona okuthunyelwe kumabhulogi abuyela emuva eminyakeni embalwa lapho u-Sam ethi, "Sesivele sifikile endaweni yomcimbi. I-AGI isifikile. I-Superintelligence isiseduze. Sizoba kwamanye amaplanethi. Sizobe selapha zonke izinhlobo zomdlavuza." Eqinisweni, angihlobisi.
Owomdlavuza empeleni uyathakazelisa, ukuthi u-Sam ukhohlisa umuntu owelapha umdlavuza wenja yakhe nge-ChatGPT, futhi lokho akwenzekanga. Bakhulume ne-ChatGPT, futhi lokho kwabasiza ukuba baqondise abacwaningi abathile abenze umsebenzi, kodwa eyodwa-to-one, leli thuluzi lelapha le nja akuyona indaba empeleni.
Ngiyajabula ukuthi uphakamise lelo phuzu ngoba ngifuna ukuqhubekela kuleli phuzu elikhulu mayelana nokuthi amandla kanye nobungozi bobuchwepheshe kuzovela nini ngempela. Kepha kufanelekile ukusho lezi zingcezu ezincane ezihlala zenzeka ku-Sam Altman, lapho ebonakala ehlanganisa le mfanelo futhi.
Ngiqonde ukuthi, ukusebenzisa isibonelo sombiko we-WilmerHale, lapho besinalo lolu lwazi obelugcinwe lungabhalwa, futhi besifuna ukwazi ukuthi ukwaziswa okushiwo ngomlomo ngasendleleni kwanikezwa omunye umuntu ngaphandle kwamalungu amabili ebhodi u-Sam asize ukuwufaka ukuze awubheke. Futhi yathi, “Yebo, yebo, cha, ngikholwa ukuthi inikezwe wonke umuntu owajoyina ibhodi ngemva kwalokho.” Futhi sinomuntu onolwazi oluqondile ngalesi simo ethi kungamanga nje. Futhi lokho kubonakala kunjalo ngempela, ukuthi akulona iqiniso. Uma sifuna ukuphana, mhlawumbe utshelwe okungeyikho.
Kuningi kwalezi ziqinisekiso ezivamile. Futhi ngisebenzisa leso sibonelo ngokwengxenye ngoba lokho kuyisibonelo esihle sokuhlakaza, ake sikubize, okungaba nemiphumela yangempela ngokomthetho. Akudingekile ukuthi ngikutshele, ngaphansi komthetho wezinkampani zaseDelaware, uma le nkampani i-IPOs, abanikazi bamasheya bengakwazi, ngaphansi kwesigaba 220, ukukhononda ngalokhu futhi bafune imibhalo eyisisekelo. Sekuvele kukhona amalungu ebhodi asho izinto ezinjengokuthi, "Hhayi-ke, ake ume kancane, lokho kwakufanele kwenzeke."
Ngakho-ke lezi zinto ezibonakala zigxuma ziphuma emlonyeni wakhe ngaso sonke isikhathi, zingaba nemiphumela yangempela yokuhambisa imakethe, imiphumela yangempela ye-OpenAI. Ukuyibuyisela ohlotsheni lolimi lwe-utopian hype oluphinde lwavela, angicabangi ukuthi ngokuzenzakalelayo ngosuku oluphuma ngalo lesi siqeshana, siphinde sibe nomthelela kithi sonke, ngoba izingozi zinkulu kakhulu mayelana nendlela okwenzeka ngayo.kusetshenziswa izikhali, indlela ezisetshenziswa ngayo ukuhlonza izimpi zamakhemikhali, amandla okubulala amagciwane, nangenxa yendlela i-utopian hype ebonakala ngayo yenza izazi eziningi zezomnotho zithi, "Lokhu kunazo zonke izimpawu zebhamuza."
Ngisho noSam Altman uthe, "Othile uzolahlekelwa yimali eningi lapha." Lokho kungadala ukukhula komnotho waseMelika kanye nowomhlaba wonke, uma kufana nokubhobozwa kwebhamuza kwangempela okubandakanya zonke lezi zinkampani ezenza izivumelwano zodwa, zingene ku-AI kuyilapho ziboleka kakhulu. Ngakho-ke okushiwo ngu-Sam Altman kubalulekile, futhi ngicabanga ukuthi ukugcwala kwabantu abaseduze kwakhe, usho ukuthi sikhulume nabangaphezu kwekhulu, empeleni bekungaphezu kwekhulu. Sibe nengxoxo entanjeni lapho kufana nokuthi, “Kungaba yinto encane kakhulu ukusho ukuthi ifana nale nombolo ephakeme kakhulu?” Futhi sasifana nokuthi, "Yebo, ake sibukele phansi. Sizodlala kahle." Kepha kwakukhona abantu abaningi futhi iningi labo lithi, "Lokhu kuyakhathaza." Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi konke kungani.
Ake ngikubuze ngaleyo nombolo. Njengoba ushilo, abantu bavuleleka ngokwengeziwe ngokukhathazeka njengoba isikhathi siqhubeka. Kuzwakala sengathi ingcindezi ezungeze ibhamuza - umjaho wokuwina, ukukhokha konke lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali, ukuvela njengomnqobi, ku-IPO - kushintshe izimo zengqondo eziningi. Impela idale ingcindezi eyengeziwe ku-Sam naku-OpenAI.
Sishicilele indaba kuleli sonto mayelana namavayibhu e-OpenAI. Indaba yakho iyingxenye yayo, kodwa izinguquko ezinkulu zabasebenzi ezikhundleni eziphezulu e-OpenAI - abantu bayeza baphinde bahambe. Abacwaningi bonke balibangise kude, ikakhulukazi ku-Anthropic, engicabanga ukuthi iyathakazelisa ngempela. Uyabona nje le nkampani izwa ingcindezi, futhi isabela kuleyo ngcindezi ngandlela thize.
Kodwa ngibuye ngicabange ukuthi uSam uyaxoshwa. Lokhu kumane kukhumbuleke kimi. Akukhunjulwa muntu omunye, kodwa ngithathe ucingo lomthombo eBronx Zoo ngo-7PM ngoLwesihlanu, futhi bekungumuntu othi uzozama ukubuyisela uSam. Sabe sesichitha impelasonto sijaha leyondaba phansi. Futhi ngavele ngathi, "Ngisendaweni yezilwane. Ufuna ngenzeni lapha?" Futhi impendulo yathi, “Hlala ocingweni.” Hhayi-ke, indodakazi yami yayingathi, “Suka ocingweni.” Futhi yilokho engikwenzile.
Kwakugibela noma ngife ukubuyisela uSam. Leyo nkampani yayifana nokuthi, "Cha, asivumeli ibhodi ukuthi lishise u-Sam Altman." Abatshalizimali, bacashunwe kusiqephu sakho, "Siye empini," ngicabanga, isikhundla se-Thrive Capital, "ukubuyisela uSam." IMicrosoft iye empini ukuze u-Sam abuye. Sekudlule isikhathi, futhi manje wonke umuntu ufana nokuthi, "Sizoya ku-IPO. Sifike entanjeni. Sithole umfana wethu, futhi uzosifikisa entanjeni. Sikhathazekile ngokuthi ungumqambimanga."
Kungani kwakuyimpi ukumbuyisela ngaleso sikhathi? Ngoba akubonakali sengathi kukhona okushintshile ngempela. Ukhuluma ngamamemo u-Ilya Sutskever kanye [ne-Anthropic CEO] u-Dario Amodei abawagcina ngesikhathi bephila ngesikhathi sika-Sam Altman. Inombolo yokuqala ka-Ilya yayiwukuthi uSam ungumqambimanga.
Akukho kulokhu okushintshile. Pho kungani kwaba yimpi ukumbuyisa ngaleso sikhathi? Futhi manje njengoba sisekupheleni, kubonakala sengathi konke ukukhathazeka kusobala.
Okokuqala, ngiyaxolisa endodakazini yakho kanye nomlingani wami nabo bonke abanye abantu abaseduze nezintatheli.
[Ehleka] Bekuyimpelasonto yawo wonke umuntu.
Yebo, ithatha impilo yomuntu, futhi le ndaba ineyami ngempela, esikhathini sokugcina. Empeleni ihlobene nalesi sihloko sobuntatheli kanye nokufinyelela olwazini, ngicabanga. Abatshalizimali abalwela u-Sam futhi bonke badlala indima ekuqinisekiseni ukuthi uyabuya, kanye nebhodi elaliklanyelwe ngokukhethekile ukuvikela injongo yenhlangano engenzi nzuzo yokubeka ukuphepha phezu kokukhula nokuxosha isikhulu uma singathenjwa kulokho, bahamba. Konke lokho kwakungenxa yokuthi, yebo, izikhuthazo zemakethe zazikhona, akunjalo?
USam wakwazi ukukholisa abantu, "Hhayi-ke, inkampani izowa." Kodwa isizathu sokuba abe nokusekelwa kwakuwukuntuleka kolwazi. Labo batshalizimali, ezikhathini eziningi, manje bathi, “Ngibheka emuva, futhi ngicabanga ukuthi bekufanele ngibe nokukhathazeka okwengeziwe ukube ngangazi ngokugcwele ukuthi zaziyini izimangalo nokuthi zaziyini izikhalo.”
Akubona bonke;imibono iyahlukahluka, futhi sicaphuna uhla lwemibono, kodwa kukhona okubalulekile abebesebenzisa ulwazi olungaphelele. Ibhodi elaxosha u-Sam, ngokwamazwi omuntu oyedwa ojwayele ukuba sebhodini, “kakhulu u-JV,” futhi baliphuthaza kanzima ibhola. Futhi sibhala phansi izikhalo eziwumsuka, futhi abantu bangazinqumela bona ukuthi kuqongelela ohlotsheni lokukhathazeka okuphuthumayo abanomuzwa wokuthi yikho, kodwa leyo mpikiswano kanye nalolo lwazi belungathulwanga.
Bathole lokho abanye babo abakubona manje njengeseluleko esibi sezomthetho. Ukuze uyichaze, uzokhumbula amazwi acashuniwe, futhi mhlawumbe iningi labalaleli bakho nababukeli bazokhumbula lesi sisho njengokushoda kwenkulumo. Yilokho okwancishiswa kwaba khona, futhi-ke babengazibambi izingcingo.
Bebengazibambi izingcingo. Ngiyaqiniseka ukuthi uzame. Wonke umuntu engimaziyo wazama, futhi kwafika lapho, njengentatheli, akufanele unikeze iseluleko ngemithombo yakho, kodwa nganginjengokuthi, "Lokhu kuzohamba uma ungaqali ukuzichaza."
Futhi yilokho okwenzekile. Khohlwa izintatheli. Ube no-Satya Nadella ethi, "Kwenzekeni? Angikwazi ukuthola muntu ozongichazela." Futhi lowo ungumsekeli omkhulu wezezimali wenkampani. Bese uba no-Satya afonele [umsunguli we-LinkedIn] u-Reid Hoffman no-Reid befona bethi, "Angazi ukuthi kwenzekeni."
Ngokuqondakalayo bakuleso sikhala solwazi, befuna izinkomba zendabuko ezingezona ze-AI ezingathethelela ukudubula okuphuthumayo, okungazelelwe. Njengokuthi, kulungile, bekungamacala ocansi? Ingabe kwakuwukukhwabanisa? Futhi konke okucashile, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi kunengqondo, impikiswano yokuthi lobu buchwepheshe buhlukile nokuthi lolu hlobo lokuqoqwa okuqinile kokukhaphela okuncane lungaba nezisekelo eziphusile kuleli bhizinisi futhi mhlawumbe nomhlaba, lulahlekile kakhulu. Ngakho-ke ama-incentives onxiwankulu aphumelela, kodwa nabantu abaphumelele baphuma futhi bebengasebenzi ngaso sonke isikhathi ngolwazi oluphelele.
Ngifuna ukuvele ngibuze mayelana nesici esithi “wonke umuntu ebecabanga ukuthi siyini” okomzuzwana nje, ngoba ngizibonile izindaba, ngathi, “O, kufanele ngabe kwenzeke okubi.” Wenze okuningi ngokubika kwe-#MeToo, ngokudumile. Uphule indaba kaHarvey Weinstein.
Uchithe isikhathi esiningi ubika ngalezi zimangalo engicabanga ukuthi unqume ukuthi azinasisekelo ekugcineni: ukuthi u-Altman unukubeze izingane ngokocansi noma waqasha abathengisa ngomzimba, noma waze wabulala umkhulumeli we-OpenAI. Ngisho, uwena umuntu ongabika lezi zinto ngokuqinile kakhulu. Ingabe unqume ukuthi kwaba yize?
Hhayi-ke, bheka, angikho ebhizinisini lokusho okuthile okungaphelele. Engingakusho ukuthi ngichithe izinyanga ngibheka lezi zicelo futhi angizange ngikuthole ukuqinisekiswa kwazo. Futhi kwakumangalisa kimi ukuthi laba bafana, lezi zinkampani ezinamandla amakhulu phezu kwekusasa lethu, ngempela zisebenzisa isikhathi esiningi nezisetshenziswa zazo empini yodaka ewubuntwana.
Esinye isikhulu sikuchaza ngokuthi "Shakespearean." Inani lemali yomphenyi ozimele kanye namaphepha aphikisayo ahlanganiswayo alinakuyeka. Futhi into edabukisayo ukuthi uhlobo lwezinto ezinomvuzo, ezikhishwa izimbangi zikaSam, kucatshangwa ukuthi kuyiqiniso, akunjalo? Kunalezi zinsolo zokuthi ulandela abafana abancane, futhi emaphathini amaningi e-Silicon Valley, uyakuzwa lokhu. Emjikelezweni wengqungquthela, ngike ngezwa kuphindaphindwa izikhulu ezithembekile neziqavile: “Wonke umuntu uyazi ukuthi lokhu kuyiqiniso.”
Okudabukisayo ukuthi ngikhuluma ngokuthi lokhu kuvelaphi, ama-vector ahlukahlukene asakazwa ngawo. U-Elon Musk kanye nozakwabo babonakala bephusha amadosi aqinile ngempela lolo hlobo lwenani libe yize. Ziyi-vaporous uma uqala ukubheka izimangalo eziyisisekelo. Okudabukisayo ukuthi kufihla ngempela ukugxeka okusekelwe ebufakazini okwengeziwe lapha engicabanga ukuthi kufanele ngempela ukubhekwa nokucatshangelwa okuphuthumayo.
Enye itimu efika endabeni icishe ibe nomuzwa wokwesaba ukuthi uSam unabangane abaningi kangaka - utshale imali ezinkampanini eziningi kusukela endimeni yakhe yangaphambilini njenge-CEO ye-Y Combinator, kuya ekutshaleni kwakhe imali mathupha, ezinye zazo ezingqubuzana ngqo nendima yakhe njenge-CEO ye-OpenAI - futhi kunokuthula eduze kwakhe.
Kwangithinta lapho ngifunda umugqa owodwa ngokukhethekile. Uchaza amamemo ka-Ilya Sutskever, futhi asanda kuphuma eSilicon Valley. Wonke umuntuubabiza ngokuthi i-Ilya memos. Kodwa kukhona ngisho ukuthula eduze kwalokho. Zidlulisiwe, kodwa azixoxwa. Ucabanga ukuthi kuvelaphi lokho? Ingabe ukwesaba? Ingabe kuyisifiso sokuthola imali yezingelosi? Kuvelaphi lokho?
Ngicabanga ukuthi kuwubugwala obuningi, ngizokhuluma iqiniso. Njengoba sebebike ngezindaba zokuphepha kuzwelonke lapho imithombo ingosolwazi abamele ukulahlekelwa yikho konke futhi babhekane nokushushiswa, basalokhu benza okufanele futhi bakhulume ngezinto zokwenza ukuziphendulela. Ngisebenze ngezindaba eziphathelene nobugebengu bocansi ozishilo, lapho imithombo ilimaze kakhulu futhi yesaba uhlobo lomuntu siqu lokuziphindiselela.
Ezimweni eziningi ngalesi sigqi, usebenzelana nabantu abanephrofayela namandla abo. Kuphakathi kokuthi bangabantu abadumile ngokwabo noma bazungezwe abantu abadumile. Banezimpilo zamabhizinisi eziqinile. Ngokubona kwami, empeleni kuncane kakhulu ukuchayeka kubo ukukhuluma ngalezi zinto. Futhi ngokubonga, inaliti iyanyakaza njengoba sike sakhuluma ngayo ngaphambili, futhi abantu manje sebekhuluma kakhulu.
Kepha isikhathi eside kangaka, abantu bavele bathule ngakho ngoba ngicabanga ukuthi isiko laseSilicon Valley limane nje linentshisekelo yobugovu futhi ligxile kwezamabhizinisi nokukhula. Ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi lokhu kuhlukumeza ngisho nabanye abantu ababehileleke ekuxosheni uSam, lapho owabona khona ezinsukwini ezilandelanayo, yebo, enye into eholele ekutheni abuye axoshwe amalungu amadala ebhodi ukuthi wahlanganisa abatshalizimali ababedidekile ngenxa yakhe.
Kodwa okunye ukuthi abanye abantu abaningi abaseduze kwayo ababenokukhathazeka futhi bakusho ngokuphuthumayo bavele bagoqa njengamanabukeni futhi bashintsha ingoma yabo ngesikhathi bebona umoya uvunguza ngenye indlela, futhi bafuna ukungena esitimeleni senzuzo.
Kumnyama impela, ngokweqiniso, ngokombono wami njengentatheli.
Abanye balabo bantu ngu-Mira Murati, engikholwa ukuthi, imizuzu engama-20 wayeyi-CEO entsha ye-OpenAI. Wabe eseshintshwa. Kwakuyi-dynamics eyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, futhi kusobala, uSam wabuya. Omunye u-Ilya Sutskever, ongomunye wamavoti okususa uSam, wabe eseshintsha umqondo, noma okungenani wathi ushintshile, wabe esehamba wayovula inkampani yakhe. Uyazi ukuthi yini eyamenza washintsha umqondo? Bekuyimali nje?
Hhayi-ke, futhi ukuze kucace, angizikhetheli lezi ezimbili. Kunamanye amalungu ebhodi abethinteka ekudubuleni nawo avele athula ngemva kwalokho. Ngicabanga ukuthi kufana nenkinga yeqoqo elibanzi. Laba, kwezinye izimo, abantu ababenamandla okuziphatha okuhlaba umkhosi futhi bathathe izinyathelo ezinqala, futhi lokho kufanele kunconywe. Futhi ngaleyo ndlela uqinisekisa ukuziphendulela. Lokho bekungasiza abantu abaningi abathintwe lobu buchwepheshe. Bekungasiza imboni ukuthi ihlale igxile kakhulu kwezokuphepha.
Kodwa ukusebenzelana nabenzi bobubi kanye nabantu abazama ukukhuthaza lokho kuziphendulela kakhulu, uyabona futhi ukuthi kuthatha umfutho wokukubekela eceleni nokuma ngokuvumelana nezinkolelo zakho. Futhi lo mkhakha ugcwele ngempela abantu abangazimisi izinkolelo zabo.
Noma becabanga ukuthi bakha uNkulunkulu wedijithali ozosusa konke ukusebenza noma adale abasebenzi abengeziwe, noma kukhona okuzokwenzeka.
Awu, yilokho. Ngakho-ke isiko lokungami ngokuvumelana nenkolelo yakho nakho konke okukukhathazayo ngokuziphatha okuwela eceleni kwendlela lapho kunokushisa noma yini engasongela ukuma kwakho ebhizinisini mhlawumbe konke kuhle futhi kuhle ngokwezinga elithile ezinkampanini zebhizinisi njengenjwayelo ezenza noma yiluphi uhlobo lwewijethi.
Kepha laba futhi ngabantu abafanayo abathi, "Lokhu kungasibulala sonke ngokoqobo." Futhi futhi, awudingi ukuya ku-Terminator Skynet ngokwedlulele. Kunesethi yezingozi esezivele zenzeka. Kuyiqiniso, futhi baqinisile ukuxwayisa ngalokho, kodwa kuzomele ube nomunye umuntu ohlezi esihlalweni sokuzivikela ukuthi lezo zinto ezimbili zingaphila kanjani kubantu abafanayo lapho bekhipha khona izexwayiso eziphuthumayo, mhlawumbe bafaka uzwane futhi bazame ukwenza okuthile, bese bevele bagoqe futhi bathule.
Yingakho nje ungathola lezi zinhlobo zezibonelo zezinto ezingabhalwanga futhi izinto zishanelwe ngaphansi kombhoxo, futhi akekho okhuluma ngakho ngokusobala iminyaka eminingi ngemuva kweqiniso.
Iqembu lemvelo, elinomthwalo wemfanelo lapha ngeke kube yizikhulu eziphezulu zalezi zinkampani; kungaba ohulumeni. E-United States, mhlawumbeohulumeni bezifundazwe, mhlawumbe uhulumeni wobumbano.
Impela, lezi zinkampani zonke zifuna ukuba emhlabeni jikelele. Kunemithelela eminingi yomhlaba lapha. Ngibuke i-OpenAI, i-Google, ne-Anthropic zonke zigqugquzela abaphathi be-Biden ukuthi bakhiphe i-AI executive order. Kwaba kuhle amazinyo ekugcineni. Livele lathi kufanele bakhulume ngalokho okukwaziyo ukwenza amamodeli abo futhi bakhiphe ukuhlolwa kokuphepha. Base-ke bonke besekela uTrump, futhi uTrump wangena futhi wakusula konke lokho wayesethi, “Kufanele siqhudelane. Kumahhala kukho konke.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, bonke bazama ukuqoqa izimali ezivela emazweni aseMpumalanga Ephakathi anemali eningi kawoyela futhi bafuna ukushintsha umnotho wabo. Labo ngosopolitiki. Nginomuzwa wokuthi osopolitiki kufanele baqonde ukuthi umuntu ukhuluma ezinhlangothini zombili zomlomo wabo, futhi ngeke bacasuke kakhulu uma othile ephoxekile ekugcineni, kodwa osopolitiki nabo bayathathwa ukuze bagibele. Ucabanga ukuthi kungani kunjalo?
Lokhu empeleni, ngicabanga, kungani ucezu lubalulekile ngokubona kwami nokuthi kungani bekufanele ukuchitha sonke lesi sikhathi nemininingwane kukho. Sisendaweni lapho izinhlelo, njengoba usho, okufanele ngabe zinikeza ukwengamela zivele zingene shi. Leyo yi-post-Citizens United America, lapho ukugeleza kwemali kungenamingcele, futhi kuwukugxila okuthile kwaleyo nkinga ezungeze i-AI, lapho kukhona lawa ma-PAC akhula futhi akhukhula imali ekuqedeni ukulawulwa okunengqondo kokubili kuhulumeni kanye nezinga lombuso.
Unayo [umsunguli ohlangene we-OpenAI] u-Greg Brockman, owesibili ku-Sam ophethe, onikela ngokuqondile ngendlela enkulu kwabambalwa balabo. Kuholela esimweni lapho kukhona ngempela ukuthunjwa kwabashayamthetho kanye nabalawuli abangaba khona, futhi lokho kuwukuvunguza okunzima ukuphuma kukho. Okudabukisayo ukuthi, ngicabanga ukuthi kunezinyathelo ezilula zenqubomgomo, ezinye zazo ezivivinywa kwenye indawo emhlabeni, ezingasiza kwezinye zalezi zinkinga zokuziphendulela.
Ungase ube nokuhlolwa kokuphepha okuphoqelekile okwengeziwe, okuyinto eyenzeka vele e-Europe kumamodeli asemngceleni. Ungase ube nezidingo eziqinile zamarekhodi omphakathi ezinhlotsheni zophenyo lwangaphakathi lapho sabona khona ukuthi izinto zingabhalwa phansi kuleli cala. Ungase ube nesethi eqinile yezindlela zokubuyekeza ukuphepha kuzwelonke zezinhlobo zezifiso zengqalasizinda yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi u-Sam Altman ayeziphusha.
Njengoba usho, wayekwenza lokhu futhi eshintshana nabaphathi be-Biden, ethi, "Silawule, silawule," futhi ebasiza ukuthi benze umyalo wokuphatha, bese kuthi lapho uTrump engena khona, ezinsukwini zokuqala, kungenzeki lutho, "Masisheshise futhi sakhe ikhampasi enkulu yesikhungo sedatha e-Abu Dhabi." Ungase ube, lokhu kulula ngempela, njengokuvikela ama-whistleblower. Asikho isimiso sikahulumeni esivikela abasebenzi benkampani ye-AI abadalula lezi zinhlobo zezinkinga zokuphepha ezisakazwa kulesi siqeshana.
Sinezimo lapho u-Jan Leike, owayeyinsizwa ephezulu yezokuphepha e-OpenAI, ayehola ukuqondanisa okuhle kakhulu enkampanini. Ubhalela ibhodi, okuyizinto ezikhulumayo, ethi inkampani iyaphuma emkhankasweni wayo wezokuphepha. Lezo izinhlobo zabantu okufanele empeleni babe nendikimba yokuqondisa abangaya kuyo, futhi kufanele babe nokuvikelwa okusemthethweni okucacile kwezinhlobo esizibona kweminye imikhakha. Lokhu kulula ukuphindaphinda umbuso wesitayela se-Sarbanes-Oxley.
Ngicabanga ukuthi naphezu kokuthi inkulu kangakanani inkinga ye-Silicon Valley ethatha ukulawula kwazo zonke izintambo zamandla, futhi naphezu kokuthi ezinye zalezi zikhungo ezingase zinikeze ukwengamela kanye nezigada zingabi nalutho, ngisakholelwa ezibalweni eziyisisekelo zentando yeningi kanye nosopolitiki abazithandayo. Futhi kuyanda idatha yokuvota evelayo ukuthi iningi labantu baseMelika licabanga ukuthi ukukhathazeka, imibuzo, noma ubungozi be-AI njengamanje kunezinzuzo.
Ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi isikhukhula semali singene kwezombangazwe kusuka ku-AI, kungaphakathi kwamandla ethu wonke ukwenza lokho kube umthombo wombuzo maqondana nosopolitiki. Lapho abantu baseMelika beyovota, kufanele babhekisise ukuthi abantu ababavotelayo yini, ikakhulukazi uma bengagxeki futhi bephikisana nomthetho, uma kubhekwa zonke lezi zinto ezikhathazayo, bafakwe ebhange yizithakazelo ezikhethekile zobuchwepheshe. Ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi uma abantu bengakwazi ukufunda izingcezu ezinjengalezi, balalele ama-podcasts anjengalawa, futhi banakekele ngokwanele ukuba bacabangele ngokucophelelaizinqumo zabo njengabavoti, kunethuba langempela lokukhiqiza indawo eWashington yabamele abaqapha futhi baphoqelele ukwengamela.
Lokho kungase kube enye yezinto ezinethemba elikhulu engake ngizwe noma ubani esho mayelana nomkhakha wamanje we-AI. Ngiyakwazisa lokho. Ngiyazifela ngokuvota okhuluma ngakho. Kuningi manje. Konke kuyahambisana kahle, futhi kubukeka sengathi abantu abasha, ikakhulukazi, bevezwa i-AI, abathembeki futhi bathukuthele kakhulu ngakho. Lokho kuyi-valence yawo wonke ama-polling. Futhi ngiyakubheka lokho, futhi ngicabanga ukuthi, yebo, osopolitiki abahlakaniphile bangavele baphikisane nalokho. Bavele bathi, "Sizophendula ubuchwepheshe obukhulu."
Ngibe sengicabanga ngeminyaka engu-20 edlule, usopolitiki ethi bazophendula ngezobuchwepheshe obukhulu, futhi ngizabalaza ukuthola ngisho nomzuzu owodwa wobuchwepheshe obukhulu obuziphendulela. Okuwukuphela kwento engenza ngicabange ukuthi lokhu kungase kuhluke ukuthi, empeleni, kufanele wakhe izikhungo zedatha, futhi ungavota ngokumelene nalokho, futhi ungafaka isicelo ngokumelene nalokho, futhi ungaphikisana nalokho.
Ngicabanga ukuthi kunosopolitiki osanda kudutshulwa endlini yakhe ngoba avotele isikhungo sedatha. Ukushuba kuyafinyelela, ngingakubiza ngokuthi, umkhuhlane. Uchaze ukuqina kweSilicon Valley. Lena i-ecosystem evaliwe. Kuzwakala sengathi bacabanga ukuthi bangawugijima umhlaba. Bafaka ithani lemali kwezombusazwe, futhi baphikisana neqiniso lokuthi abantu abayithandi imikhiqizo, engabaniki ikhava eningi. Lapho besebenzisa kakhulu imikhiqizo, bacasuka kakhulu, futhi osopolitiki sebeqala ukubona ukuthi kunemiphumela yangempela yokusekela imboni yezobuchwepheshe phezu kwabantu ababamele.
Ukhulume nabantu abaningi kakhulu. Ucabanga ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi imboni yezobuchwepheshe ifunde isifundo esiphambi kwabo?
Uthi kuzwakala sengathi bacabanga ukuthi bangaphatha umhlaba ngaphandle kokuziphendulela. Angicabangi nokuthi lokho kudinga ukuqeqeshwa "okuzwakala sengathi". Ngisho ukuthi, ubheka ulimi olusetshenziswa uPeter Thiel, lucacile. Yiqiniso, lokho kuyisibonelo esidlulele. Futhi uSam Altman, nakuba esondelene futhi enolwazi ngemibono kaThiel ngokwezinga elithile, uwuhlobo oluhluke kakhulu lomuntu olungase luzwakale luhlukile futhi lulinganiswa ngokwezinga elithile.
Kepha ngicabanga ukuthi umbono obanzi owuthola kuThiel, okuwukuthi: Sesiqedile ngentando yeningi, asisayidingi. Sinokuningi kangangokuthi sifuna nje ukuzakhela izindlu ezincane. Asisabhekani nabakwaCarnegies noma abakwaRockefellers, lapho bengabantu ababi, kodwa banomuzwa wokuthi badinga ukuhlanganyela esivumelwaneni somphakathi futhi bakhele abantu izinto. Kukhona i-nihilism yangempela ebekiwe.
Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi kusanda kuqinisana emlandweni wakamuva waseMelika wezikhulu nezinkampani ezizimele ezithola amandla kahulumeni omkhulu kuyilapho izikhungo zentando yeningi ezingase zibenze balandise zisavaliwe. Angizizwa nginethemba ngombono wokuthi labo bafana bangase bavele bavuke ngelinye ilanga bacabange, “Hheyi, empeleni siyakudinga ukubamba iqhaza emphakathini futhi sisize ukwakha izinto zabantu.”
Ngiqonde ukuthi, ubukeka njengesibonelo se-microcosmic se-The Giving Pledge, lapho kwaba khona isikhashana lapho kwakubonakala sengathi esokusiza abantulayo, futhi leso sikhathi manje sesidlulile futhi sesihlekwa usulu. Lokho kuyinkinga, inkinga ebanzi yokuntuleka kokuziphendulela engicabanga ukuthi ingaxazululwa ngaphandle kuphela. Lokho kufanele kube abavoti abahlanganisa futhi bavuse amandla okuqapha kukahulumeni. Futhi uqinisile impela ukusho ukuthi i-vector enkulu abantu abangafinyelela ngayo leyo ingeyasendaweni. Imayelana nalapho kwakhiwa khona ingqalasizinda.
Ubalule okunye ukushuba kwesimo esimhlophe kulokhu okuholela odlameni nasezinsongweni, futhi ngokusobala, akekho okufanele abe nodlame noma asabise. Futhi angikho lapha ukuze ngenze izincomo ezithile zenqubomgomo ngaphandle nje kokwethula ezinye zezinyathelo zenqubomgomo ezibonakala ziyisisekelo futhi ezisebenza kwenye indawo emhlabeni, akunjalo? Noma abake basebenza kweminye imikhakha. Angizile lapha ukusho ukuthi yikuphi kwalokhu okufanele kubulawe futhi kanjani.
Ngicabanga ukuthi kukhona okumele kwenzeke, futhi kumele kube ngaphandle, hhayi nje ukwethemba lezi zinkampani. Ngoba kulungilemanje sinesimo lapho izinkampani ezithuthukisa ubuchwepheshe futhi ezihlome kangcono ukuqonda ubungozi, futhi empeleni yizo ezisixwayisa ngobungozi, futhi yizo ezingenalutho ngaphandle kwesisusa sokuhamba ngokushesha futhi ungazinaki lezo zingozi. Futhi awunayo nje into yokuphikisa lokho. Ngakho-ke noma yiziphi izinguquko ezingase zithathwe ngokuya ngemininingwane ethile, okuthile kufanele kuhambisane nalokho. Futhi ngisabuyela kulelo themba lokuthi abantu basabalulekile.
Ngivame ukuthenga ingxabano yakho. Ake ngenze nje impikiswano encane engicabanga ukuthi ngingayichaza. Enye into engenzeka ngaphandle kwebhokisi lokuvota ukuthi i-bubble pops, akunjalo? Ukuthi akuzona zonke lezi zinkampani ezifika entanjeni, nokuthi ayikho imakethe yomkhiqizo efanele izicelo ze-AI zabathengi. Futhi futhi, angikakuboni ngempela, kodwa ngingumbuyekezi wobuchwepheshe bomthengi, futhi mhlawumbe nginezindinganiso eziphakeme kunawo wonke umuntu.
Kukhona imakethe yomkhiqizo efanelekile emhlabeni webhizinisi, akunjalo? Ukuba nenqwaba yama-ejenti e-AI bhala inqwaba yesoftware kubonakala kuyimakethe yangempela yalawa mathuluzi. Futhi ungafunda izimpikiswano ezivela kulezi zinkampani zithi, "Sixazulule ukubhala ngekhodi, futhi lokho kusho ukuthi singaxazulula noma yini. Uma singenza isofthiwe, singaxazulula noma yiziphi izinkinga."
Ngicabanga ukuthi kunemikhawulo yangempela yezinto ezingenziwa yisoftware. Lokho kuhle emhlabeni webhizinisi. Isoftware ayikwazi ukuxazulula yonke inkinga empeleni, kepha kufanele ifike lapho. Kufanele baqedele umsebenzi, futhi mhlawumbe akuwona wonke umuntu ofika entanjeni. Futhi kukhona ukuphahlazeka, futhi leli bhamuza liyavela, futhi mhlawumbe i-OpenAI noma i-Anthropic noma i-xAI, enye yalezi zinkampani iyahluleka, futhi konke lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali kuyaphela.
Ucabanga ukuthi lokho kungathinta lokhu? Empeleni, ake ngibuze umbuzo wokuqala kuqala. I-OpenAI ilungile ekugcineni kwe-IPO. Kunokungabaza okuningi ngoSam njengomholi. Ucabanga ukuthi bazofika entanjeni?
Ngeke ngibikezele, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi uphakamisa iphuzu elibalulekile, eliwukuthi izikhuthazo zemakethe zibalulekile ngaphakathi eSilicon Valley, futhi ubuqiniso be-bubble dynamics yamanje kumele buphazamise, futhi, ngokunokwenzeka, ngokusho kwabagxeki, umjaho uye phansi kwezokuphepha.
Ngingangeza futhi kulokho, uma ubheka okwandulelayo komlando lapho kunesethi efanayo futhi ebonakala ingenakungeneka yezinzuzo zemakethe kanye nemiphumela engase isuse umphakathi, kukhona ukumangalelana komthelela. Futhi ubona lokho njengendawo yokukhathazeka muva nje. USam Altman ukhona kuleli sonto ogunyaza umthetho ozovikela izinkampani ze-AI kwezinye zezinhlobo zezikweletu i-OpenAI edalulwe kuzo ngamasudi okufa angalungile, ngokwesibonelo. Yiqiniso, kukhona isifiso sokuba naleso sivikelo esibophweni.
Ngicabanga ukuthi izinkantolo zisengaba yindlela ephusile, futhi kuzojabulisa kakhulu ukubona ukuthi lezi zinkantolo zimi kanjani. Usuvele uyibonile, ngokwesibonelo, isudi yekilasi, mina nabanye ababhali abaningi engibaziyo abangamalungu, ngokumelene ne-Anthropic ngokusebenzisa kwabo izincwadi ezazingaphansi kwe-copyright. Uma kukhona izingqondo zezomthetho ezihlakaniphile nabamangali abakhathalelayo, njengoba sibonile ngokomlando ezimweni ezisuka kugwayi omkhulu kuya kumandla amakhulu, ungathola futhi imigqa yokuqapha kanye nezinye izikhuthazo zokunciphisa ijubane, ukuqaphela, noma ukuvikela abantu ngaleyo ndlela.
Kuzwakala sengathi lonke ukwakheka kwezindleko zomkhakha we-AI kuncike encazelweni enkulu, ewusizo kakhulu yokusetshenziswa okufanele. Ayifiki ngokwanele. Isakhiwo sezindleko salezi zinkampani singase singalawuleki uma kufanele zikukhokhele wena nawo wonke umuntu omsebenzi wakhe eziwuthathile, kodwa akulula ukucabanga ngakho, ngakho-ke asikucabangi nje lokho. Eceleni kwalokho, yonke le mikhiqizo manje isebenza ngokulahlekelwa. Njenganamuhla, bonke bagijima ngokulahlekelwa. Bashisa imali eningi kunalokho abangakwenza. Ngesinye isikhathi, kufanele baphenye iswishi.
USam ungusomabhizinisi. Njengoba usushilo izikhathi eziningana, akayena uchwepheshe. Ungumuntu webhizinisi. Ucabanga ukuthi ukulungele ukushintsha iswishi bese ethi, "Sizokwenza idola?" Ngoba uma ngibuza, "Ucabanga ukuthi i-OpenAI izophumelela?" Yilapho kufanele benze idola. Futhi kuze kube manje, u-Sam usezenzele wonke amadola akhe ngokucela abanye abantu imali yabo esikhundleni sokuthi izinkampani zakhe zenze imali.
Hhayi-ke, lowo umbuzo omkhulu osalayo weSilicon Valley, kubatshalizimali, emphakathini.Ubona izitatimende ezithile bese uphuma ku-OpenAI okubonakala kuveza uhlobo lokwethuka ngalokho. Ivala i-Sora, ivala amanye amaphrojekthi ahambisanayo, izama ukungena kumkhiqizo oyinhloko. Kodwa-ke ngakolunye uhlangothi, usabona, ngesikhathi esifanayo, amathani e-mission creep, akunjalo? Ngisho nesibonelo esincane - ngokusobala akuwona umnyombo ebhizinisini labo - ukutholwa kwe-TBPN.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba sasifika entanjeni futhi sibheka iqiniso, inkampani ebhekene nalolu hlobo lokucutshungulwa kobuntatheli ithola inkundla lapho ingaba nokulawula okuqondile engxoxweni. Ngicabanga ukuthi kunenqwaba yabatshalizimali abakhathazekile, ngokusekelwe ezingxoxweni engibe nazo, ukuthi le nkinga yokuthembisa zonke izinto kubo bonke abantu iphinde idlulele kulokhu kuntuleka kokugxila kumodeli webhizinisi oyinhloko. Futhi ngisho ukuthi, ususondele ohlotsheni lokubikezela nokubuka imakethe kunalokho engiyikho. Ngizokushiya nabalaleli ukuthi nibe yijaji lokuthi bacabanga ukuthi i-OpenAI ingakwazi yini ukushintsha ukushintsha.
Hhayi-ke, ngibuze lo mbuzo ngoba uthole i-quote esiqeshini esivela kumphathi omkhulu we-Microsoft, nokuthi, "Ifa lika-Sam lingase lifane kakhulu noBernie Madoff noma uSam Bankman-Fried," kunokuba uSteve Jobs. Lokho kuyisiqhathaniso. Wenzani ngalokho kuqhathanisa?
Ngicabanga ukuthi lokho kuyi-paraphrase. Ingxenye kaSteve Jobs ibingeyona ingxenye yengcaphuno. Kepha kunohlobo oluthokozisayo lokuhluzeka kukho ngoba kubhalwe njengokuthi, "Ngicabanga ukuthi kunethuba elincane kodwa langempela lokuthi agcine eseyi-SBF noma umkhonyovu wezinga le-Madoff." Okusho ukuthi, emqondweni wami, akukhona ukuthi u-Sam usolwa ngalezo zinhlobo ezithile zokukhwabanisa noma zobugebengu, kodwa ukuthi izinga lokuhlakaza nokukhohlisa okuvela ku-Sam lingase libe nethuba lokukhunjulwa ekugcineni ngaleso sikhathi.
Yebo, ngicabanga ukuthi okuhlaba umxhwele kakhulu ngaleso sicaphuno, ngokweqiniso, ukuthi ushayela e-Microsoft futhi awutholi ukufana, "Kuyahlanya lokho. Asikaze sikuzwe lokho." Uthola ukufana okuningi, "Yebo, abantu abaningi lapha bacabanga lokho" okumangazayo. Futhi ngicabanga ukuthi iya kule mibuzo yebhizinisi yamantongomane namabhawudi.
Omunye umtshali-zimali wangitshela, ngokwesibonelo, ngenxa yendlela lesi sici esiye saphikelela ngayo eminyakeni yangemva kokudutshulwa” - futhi lokhu kuphinde kwacabanga ukuthi lona bekuwumcabango ophusile othakazelisayo - ukuthi akusho ukuthi u-Sam kufanele abe phansi ngokuphelele ohlwini, njengokungathi kufanele abe ngaphansi kunabo bonke abaphansi ngokwemibandela yabantu okungafanele neze bakhe lobu buchwepheshe, ngoba kukhona abantu abambalwa abashiwo ngu-Elon. imbeka mhlawumbe ezansi ohlwini lwabantu okufanele bakhe i-AGI, futhi ngaphansi kwezinye izibalo ezimbalwa ezihamba phambili kulo mkhakha.
Ngakho-ke ngicabange ukuthi lokho bekuwukuhlola okuthakazelisayo, futhi yilolo hlobo lokucabanga engicabanga ukuthi uthola kuma-pragmatist angempela okungenzeka awazithengi kangako izinto ezithinta ukuphepha. Bagxile ekukhuleni, futhi bacabanga ukuthi i-OpenAI manje inenkinga no-Sam Altman.
Isiqephu seMicrosoft siyathakazelisa ngempela. Leyo nkampani yayicabanga ukuthi iphezulu emhlabeni. Ukuthi benze lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali futhi bazogxumela wonke umuntu, ikakhulukazi futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, i-Google, futhi babuyele ezinhlelweni ezinhle zabathengi. Izinga abazizwa beshiswa ngalo lolu hlelo lokusebenza - lena inkampani esebenza ngokusangulukisa kakhulu - angicabangi ukuthi ingeqiwa.
Ukhulume ngabalingiswa kanye nezici zobuntu. Ngifuna ukuphetha lapha ngombuzo ovela kubalaleli bethu. Ngasho kolunye uhlelo lwethu, i-Vergecast, ukuthi ngizokhuluma nawe, futhi ngathi, “Uma unemibuzo kaRonan ngale ndaba, ungazise.” Ngakho-ke sineyodwa lapha engicabanga ukuthi ihlobana kahle nalokho okuchazayo. Ngizokufundela nje:
"Izizathu zokuziphatha okubi, izenzo zokusikaza zika-Altman nabanye abaholi be-AI zihluke kanjani kulokho uRonan akuzwa kwabanye abaholi abasezingeni eliphezulu kwezepolitiki nabezindaba? Ingabe bonke abazithetheleli izenzo zabo ngokuthi le yindlela umhlaba oguquka ngayo? Uma ngingakwenzi lokhu, omunye uzokwenza?"
Yebo, kuningi kwalokho okwenzekayo. Ngingasho ukuthi yini ehlukile ku-AI ukuthi amanani akhona aphezulu kakhulu asho ukuthi zombili izitatimende zobungozi zidlulele, akunjalo? Uno-Sam Altmanbethi, “Lokhu kungaba yizibani kithi sonke.” Futhi, abagxeki bangase bathi, i-mania lowo obuzayo abhekisela kuyo idlulele, akunjalo?
Into u-Sam asola ngayo u-Elon, kurekhodi, ukuthi mhlawumbe ufuna ukusindisa isintu, kodwa kuphela uma kunguye. Uhlobo lwengxenye ye-ego yokufuna ukunqoba, okuwuhlaka olusetshenziswa ngu-Sam ngaso sonke isikhathi, nokuthi lena ingeyezincwadi zomlando, lokhu kungashintsha yonke into. Ngakho-ke, ngisho nangaphezulu nangaphezulu komqondo othi "kufanele uphule amaqanda ambalwa" wamabhizinisi amaningi aseSilicon Valley, kukhona, emiqondweni yezibalo ezithile ezihola i-AI, ngicabanga ukuthi, ukulinganisa okuphelele kwanoma yikuphi ukuwa.
Futhi ukhohlwe ukuphula amaqanda. Ngi/ ngicabanga ukuthi abacwaningi abaningi bezokuphepha bangasho ukuthi kungaba sengozini yokugqekeza izwe, ukugqekeza umhlaba, nokuphula izigidi zabantu imisebenzi yabo nokuphepha kulenga esilinganisweni - yilokho okuhlukile ngakho. Yilapho engivala khona, ngizindla ngalo mzimba wokubika, ngikholelwa ngempela ukuthi lokhu kungaphezu kuka-Sam Altman. Lokhu kumayelana nemboni engavinjelwe futhi inkinga eqhubekayo yeMelika engakwazi ukuyivimbela.
Yebo. Hhayi-ke, besinethemba elithile lapho, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi leyo yindawo enhle yokuyishiya.
[Ehleka] Qeda ngesigqi esiphansi.
Kunjalo. Yizo zonke izindaba ezinhle, ngempela. Icala likaMusk-Altman liyeza. Ngicabanga ukuthi sizofunda okuningi lapha. Ngisola ukuthi ngizophinde ngifune ukukhuluma nawe. Ronan Farrow, ngiyabonga kakhulu ngokuba kwi-Decoder.
Ngiyabonga.
Imibuzo noma ukuphawula mayelana nalesi siqephu? Sithinte [email protected]. Ngempela siyawafunda wonke ama-imeyili!
