Lero pa Decoder, ndikulankhula ndi Ronan Farrow, m'modzi mwa akatswiri ofufuza omwe akugwira ntchito lero. Anaphwanya nkhani ya Harvey Weinstein, pakati pa ena ambiri. Ndipo sabata yatha, iye ndi mlembi mnzake Andrew Marantz adasindikiza chodabwitsa chozama chozama mu New Yorker chokhudza CEO wa OpenAI Sam Altman, kukhulupirika kwake, komanso kuwuka kwa OpenAI komwe.
Chidziwitso chimodzi tisanapite patsogolo apa—The New Yorker inafalitsa nkhaniyi ndipo Ronan ndi ine tinakambirana izi tisanadziwe kuchuluka kwa kuukira kwa nyumba ya Altman, kuti musatimve tikukamba za izi mwachindunji. Koma kungonena izi, ndikuganiza kuti chiwawa chamtundu uliwonse ndi chosavomerezeka, kuukira kwa Sam kumeneku kunali kosavomerezeka, komanso kuti mtundu wa kusowa thandizo komwe anthu amamva, komwe kumayambitsa chiwawa chotere, chokhacho sichingavomerezedwe, ndipo chiyenera kufufuzidwa kwambiri kuchokera ku makampani onse ndi atsogoleri athu a ndale. Ndikukhulupirira kuti ndizomveka.
Pafupifupi olembetsa, musaiwale kuti mumatha kugwiritsa ntchito Decoder mosatsatsa kulikonse komwe mungapeze ma podcasts. Mutu apa. Osati olembetsa? Mutha kulemba apa.
Zonse zomwe zanenedwa, pali zambiri zomwe zikuzungulira Altman zomwe ndimasewera abwino pakupereka malipoti okhwima - mtundu wa malipoti a Ronan ndi Andrew omwe adafuna kuchita. Chifukwa cha kutchuka kwa ChatGPT, Altman wakhala wodziwika bwino kwambiri pamakampani a AI, atasandutsa labu yofufuza yopanda phindu kukhala kampani yabizinesi pafupifupi thililiyoni pazaka zochepa chabe. Koma nthano ya Altman imasemphana kwambiri, imatanthauzidwa mofanana ndi luso lake lodziwikiratu komanso zomwe amakonda…
Nkhaniyi ili ndi mawu opitilira 17,000, ndipo ili ndi mbiri yotsimikizika ya zomwe zidachitika mu 2023 pomwe bungwe la oyang'anira OpenAI lidathamangitsa Altman chifukwa chakunama kwake, kuti angotsala pang'ono kulembedwanso ntchito. Ndikulowanso mozama m'moyo wa Altman, ndalama zake, kukonda kwake ndalama ku Middle East, komanso malingaliro ake pamakhalidwe ake am'mbuyomu komanso machitidwe ake zomwe zidapangitsa kuti buku lina linene kuti "sanaumirizidwe ndi chowonadi." Ndikupangira kuti muwerenge nkhani yonse; Ndikuganiza kuti idzafotokozedwa kwa zaka zambiri zikubwerazi.
Ronan analankhula ndi Altman nthawi zambiri kwa miyezi 18 yomwe adakhala akufotokoza nkhaniyi, ndipo chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu zomwe ndimafuna kudziwa chinali ngati adawona kusintha kulikonse kwa Altman panthawiyo. Kupatula apo, zambiri zachitika mu AI, muukadaulo, komanso padziko lonse lapansi chaka chathachi ndi theka.
Mudzamva Ronan akuyankhula za izi mwachindunji, komanso maganizo ake kuti anthu akhala okonzeka kulankhula za Altman kuthekera kutambasula choonadi. Anthu akuyamba kudabwa, mokweza komanso pa mbiri, ngati khalidwe la anthu ngati Altman likukhudzana ndi, osati za AI kapena tech komanso za tsogolo la anthu onse.
Chabwino: Ronan Farrow pa Sam Altman, AI, ndi chowonadi. Nazi.
Kuyankhulana uku kwasinthidwa mopepuka kuti ikhale yayitali komanso yomveka bwino.
Ronan Farrow, ndinu mtolankhani wofufuza komanso wothandizira ku New Yorker. Takulandilani ku Decoder.
Wokondwa kukhala pano. Zikomo pokhala nane.
Ndine wokondwa kulankhula nanu. Mwangolembapo gawo lalikulu la New Yorker. Ndi mbiri ya Sam Altman ndipo, ngati ili, OpenAI. Kuwerenga kwanga ndikuti, monga zonse zabwino zimachitira, izo, ndi malipoti okhwima, zimatsimikizira malingaliro ambiri omwe anthu akhala nawo pa Sam Altman kwa nthawi yayitali kwambiri. Mwachiwonekere mwachisindikiza, mwachitapo kanthu pa icho. Kodi panopa mukuzimva bwanji?
Chabwino, ndalimbikitsidwa, makamaka, momwe zidadumphira panthawi yomwe chuma cha chidwi chimakhala chamtundu wa schizophrenic komanso wosazama. Iyi ndi nkhani yomwe, m'malingaliro mwanga, imatikhudza tonsefe. Ndipo nditakhala chaka chimodzi ndi theka la moyo wanga, ndipo mlembi mnzanga, Andrew Marantz, adakhalanso nthawi yake, akuyesera kuchita zinthu mwanzeru komanso mwanzeru, nthawi zonse ndimakhala chifukwa ndimamva ngati pali zovuta zazikulu zomwe zimakhudza anthu kupitilira munthu payekha komanso kampani yomwe ili pamtima pa nkhaniyi.
Sam Altman, motsutsana ndi chikhalidwe cha Silicon Valley hype ndi zoyambira zomwe zimawonetsa kuwerengera kwakukulu kutengera malonjezo omwe mwina kapena sangachitike mtsogolomo, komanso kukumbatirana kowonjezereka kwa chikhalidwe choyambitsa chomwe chimaganiza zouza magulu osiyanasiyana zinthu zosiyanasiyana zotsutsana ndi mawonekedwe, osati mawonekedwe.Ngakhale izi, Sam Altman ndi nkhani yodabwitsa pomwe aliyense ku Silicon Valley yemwe amayembekeza kuti zinthuzo sangasiye kunena za kukhulupirika kwake komanso kuwona mtima kwake.
Tidadziwa kale kuti adachotsedwa ntchito pazifukwa zina zakusawona mtima kapena zabodza. Koma modabwitsa, ngakhale pakhala malipoti odabwitsa, Keach Hagey wachita ntchito yayikulu pa izi. Karen Hao wachita ntchito yabwino pa izi. Panalibenso kumvetsetsa kotsimikizika kwa maumboni enieni omwe amanenedwa komanso chifukwa chomwe iwo sadawonekere.
Kotero mfundo yoyamba ndi yakuti ndikumva kukhudzidwa ndi mfundo yakuti ena mwa mipata mu chidziwitso chathu cha anthu, komanso ngakhale chidziwitso cha Silicon Valley insiders, tsopano adzazidwa pang'ono. Zina mwazifukwa zomwe panali mipata zadzazidwa pang'ono.
Timapereka lipoti pazochitika zomwe anthu mkati mwa kampaniyi amamva ngati zinthu zaphimbidwa kapena sizinalembedwe mwadala. Chimodzi mwazinthu zatsopano m'nkhaniyi ndikufufuza kofunikira kwazamalamulo ndi WilmerHale, yomwe mwachiwonekere ndi kampani yodalirika, yodalirika, yayikulu yomwe idachita kafukufuku wa Enron ndi WorldCom, zomwe, mwa njira, zonse zinali zowoneka bwino, ngati mazana amasamba osindikizidwa. WilmerHale adachita kafukufukuyu yemwe adafunsidwa ndi mamembala a board omwe adathamangitsa Altman ngati momwe amachoka pomwe adawachotsa, ndipo adabwerera. Ndipo modabwitsa - pamaso pa akatswiri ambiri azamalamulo omwe ndidalankhula nawo, ndipo modabwitsa pamaso pa anthu ambiri mukampaniyi - adazisunga kuti asalembe. Zonse zomwe zidatulukapo ndi mawu a 800-mawu a OpenAI omwe adafotokoza zomwe zidachitika ngati kutha kwa chikhulupiriro. Ndipo tidatsimikizira kuti izi zidasungidwa pazokambirana zapakamwa.
Pali nthawi zina pomwe, mwachitsanzo, membala wa board akuwoneka kuti akufuna kuvota motsutsana ndi kutembenuka kuchokera ku fomu yoyambirira yopanda phindu ya OpenAI kukhala bungwe lopeza phindu, ndipo zimalembedwa ngati kukana. Pali ngati loya pamsonkhanowo akunena kuti, "Chabwino, zitha kuyambitsa kuwunika kwambiri." Ndipo munthu amene akufuna kuvota motsutsa amalembedwa ngati wodziletsa pamawonekedwe onse. Pali kutsutsana kwenikweni. OpenAI imanena mosiyana, monga momwe mungaganizire. Izi ndizochitika zonse pomwe muli ndi kampani yomwe, mwa akaunti yake, imagwira tsogolo lathu m'manja mwake.
Zotetezedwa ndizovuta kwambiri kotero kuti sizinachoke. Ichi ndichifukwa chake kampaniyi idakhazikitsidwa ngati yopanda phindu yomwe imayang'ana kwambiri zachitetezo, komanso pomwe zinthu zinali zobisika m'njira yomwe anthu odalirika mozungulira izi adapeza kuti ndizochepa kuposa akatswiri. Ndipo mumagwirizanitsa izi ndi kumbuyo komwe kulibe chikhumbo chochepa cha ndale cha malamulo abwino. Ndikuganiza kuti ndizochitika zoyaka kwambiri.
Mfundo kwa ine sikuti Sam Altman ndiye woyenera mafunso awa mozama. Zilinso kuti aliyense wa anyamatawa m'munda uno, ndipo ambiri mwa ziwerengero zazikuluzikulu, zikuwonetsa, ngati sizomwezo, zomwe amati amanama nthawi zonse, ndithudi pamlingo wina wa malingaliro othamanga, kumene anthu omwe anali otetezera chitetezo adatsitsira malonjezano awo ndi aliyense-ali-mu-mpikisano kaimidwe.
Ndikuganiza, pamene tikuyang'ana kutulutsa kwaposachedwa kuchokera ku Anthropic, pali munthu amene amafunsa kuti ndani ayenera kukhala ndi chala pa batani mu chidutswa ichi. Yankho ndilakuti, ngati tilibe kuyang'anira koyenera, ndikuganiza kuti tiyenera kufunsa mafunso akulu ndikuyesera kutulutsa zambiri momwe tingathere za anyamata onsewa. Kotero ine ndalimbikitsidwa ndi zomwe zimamveka ngati kukambirana kwatanthauzo za izo, kapena chiyambi cha chimodzi.
Chifukwa chomwe ndidafunsa motere ndikuti munagwirapo ntchito kwa chaka ndi theka. Munalankhula, ndikukhulupirira, anthu 100 ndi wolemba mnzake, Andrew. Ndi nthawi yayitali kuti nkhani iphike. Ndikuganiza za chaka chatha ndi theka mu AI makamaka, ndipo mnyamata, ali ndi malingaliro ndi zikhalidwe za anthu onsewa anasintha mofulumira kwambiri.
Mwinanso winanso kuposa Sam Altman, yemwe adayamba kukhala wopambana chifukwa adatulutsa ChatGPT ndipo aliyense adaganiza kuti izi zingotengera Google. Ndipo Google adayankha, zomwe zimawoneka kuti zidadabwitsa kuti Google iyesera kuteteza bizinesi yake, mwina imodzi mwamabizinesi abwino kwambiri mu mbiri yaukadaulo, ngati si mbiri yabizinesi. Anthropic adaganiza kuti aziyang'ana bizinesiyo. Zikuoneka kuti zikutsogolerakumeneko chifukwa ntchito yamabizinesi ya AI ndiyokwera kwambiri.
Tsopano, OpenAI ikuyang'ananso malonda ake kutali ndi "titenga Google" kupita ku Codex, ndipo atenga bizinesi. Sindikudziwa ngati, panthawi yomwe mumapereka lipoti chaka chathachi ndi theka, ngati zikuwoneka ngati anthu omwe mumalankhula nawo asintha? Mofanana ndi maganizo ndiponso makhalidwe awo, kodi zimenezi zinasintha?
Inde. Ndikuganiza poyamba, kuti kutsutsa komwe kumafufuzidwa mu chidutswa ichi, kuchokera kwa anthu ambiri mkati mwa makampaniwa panthawiyi - kuti iyi ndi mafakitale omwe, ngakhale kuti pali zinthu zomwe zilipo, akutsikira mu chinachake cha mpikisano mpaka pansi pa chitetezo ndi kumene liwiro likuwomba china chirichonse - nkhawayi yakula kwambiri. Ndipo ndikuganiza kuti nkhawazo zatsimikizika kwambiri momwe chaka chatha ndi theka chachitika. Nthawi yomweyo, malingaliro okhudza Sam Altman asintha makamaka. Titayamba kuyankhula ndi magwero a izi, anthu analidi okhumudwa kuti atchulidwe za izi ndikupita ku mbiri ya izi.
Pamapeto pa lipoti lathu, muli ndi gulu la malipoti pomwe anthu akulankhula za izi momveka bwino komanso momveka bwino, ndipo muli ndi mamembala omwe akunena zinthu monga, "Iye ndi wabodza. Pali malingaliro osiyanasiyana kuyambira, "Izi ndizowopsa tikaganizira zachitetezo, ndipo tikufuna atsogoleri aukadaulo omwe ali ndi kukhulupirika," mpaka kufika pokonda, "Iwalani zachitetezo, ili ndi khalidwe lomwe silingagwire ntchito kwa wamkulu aliyense wamakampani akuluakulu, zomwe zimangoyambitsa kusokonekera kwambiri."
Chifukwa chake zokambiranazo zakhala zomveka bwino m'njira yomwe imamva ngati yachedwa, koma yolimbikitsa mwanjira ina. Ndipo Sam Altman, mwa kuyamikira kwake… Chidutswacho ndichabwino kwambiri komanso chowolowa manja, ndinganene, kwa Sam. Uwu si mtundu wa chidutswa pomwe panali zinthu zambiri "zakupezani". Ndinakhala maola ambiri pafoni ndi iye pamene tinali kumaliza izi ndikumumva bwino.
Monga momwe mungaganizire, m'chidutswa chonga ichi, sizinthu zonse zomwe zimapanga. Zina mwazochitika mu iyi zinali chifukwa chakuti ndinali kumvetsera moona mtima. Ndipo ngati Sam akupanga mkangano womwe ndimamva kuti wanyamula madzi, kuti china chake, ngakhale chinali chowona, chingakhale chosangalatsa, ndidalakwitsa kwambiri kusunga izi ndikuyesa. Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti izi zikulandilidwa moyenera, ndipo ndikungokhulupirira kuti zowona zomwe zasonkhanitsidwa panthawiyi zitha kuyambitsa kukambirana mozama zakufunika koyang'anira.
Ili ndiye funso langa lotsatira. Ndikuganiza kuti mudalankhula ndi Sam maulendo khumi ndi awiri pofotokoza nkhaniyi. Apanso, ndizo zokambirana zambiri kwa nthawi yayitali. Kodi mukuganiza kuti Sam anasintha pa nthawi yopereka lipoti chaka chathachi ndi theka?
Inde. Ndikuganiza kuti chimodzi mwazinthu zosangalatsa kwambiri mu izi ndikuti Sam Altman akulankhulanso zamtunduwu momveka bwino kuposa kale. Kaimidwe ka Sam mugawoli si ngati, "Palibe chilichonse pamenepo, izi sizowona; sindikudziwa zomwe mukunena." Maonekedwe omwe ali nawo ndikuti akuti izi zimachitika chifukwa chokonda anthu komanso kudana ndi mikangano. Amavomereza kuti zinamubweretsera mavuto, makamaka kumayambiriro kwa ntchito yake.
Akunena kuti, “Chabwino, ndikudutsa pamenepo, kapena ndadutsa pamenepo.” Ndikuganiza kuti chomwe chimandisangalatsa kwambiri ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe tidalankhula nawo omwe sanali olimbikitsa chitetezo, osati akatswiri ofufuza zaukadaulo omwe nthawi zambiri amakhala ndi nkhawa zachitetezo, komanso pragmatic, osunga ndalama. Iwo ndi ochirikiza a Sam, omwe, nthawi zina, amayang'ana funso ili ndikulankhula za kukhala ndi gawo lalikulu pakubwerera kwake atamuwombera. Tsopano, pa funso loti ngati wasintha, ndipo kusinthako kuli ndi tanthauzo pati, iwo amati, "Chabwino, tidamupatsa mwayi wokayikira panthawiyo."
Ndikuganiza za Investor wodziwika makamaka yemwe adati, "Koma kuyambira pamenepo, zikuwoneka kuti sanatulutsidwe kuseri kwa matabwa," omwe anali mawu omwe uyu adagwiritsa ntchito, mpaka pakufunika. Zotsatira zake, zikuwoneka ngati izi tsopano ndi khalidwe lokhazikika. Tikuwona izi m'njira yopitilira. Mutha kuyang'ana ena mwamabizinesi akuluakulu a OpenAImayanjano ndi momwe amanyamulira kulemera kwa kusakhulupirirana nthawi zonse.
Monga Microsoft, mumalankhula ndi oyang'anira kumeneko, ndipo ali ndi nkhawa kwambiri komanso zaposachedwa. Pali nthawi iyi pomwe, tsiku lomwelo OpenAI ikutsimikiziranso kudzipatula kwake ndi Microsoft pankhani yamitundu yopanda malire ya AI ikulengezanso mgwirizano watsopano ndi Amazon wokhudzana ndi kugulitsa mabizinesi opangira ma AI othandizira, kutanthauza kuti amakumbukira.
Mumalankhula ndi anthu a Microsoft, ndipo amakhala ngati, "Sizingatheke kuchita popanda kuyanjana ndi zinthu zomwe timapangana nazo." Chifukwa chake ndi chimodzi mwa zitsanzo zing'onozing'ono zomwe izi zimakonda kuchita bizinesi nthawi zonse ndipo ndi nkhani yodetsa nkhawa mkati mwa board ya OpenAI, mkati mwa akuluakulu ake, komanso m'magulu ambiri aukadaulo.
Mumapitiriza kunena kuti “khalidwe” limenelo. Pali mzere m'nkhaniyi womwe kwa ine ndikumva ngati chiphunzitsocho, ndipo ndikufotokozera za chikhalidwe chomwe mukufotokoza. Ndizoti "Sam Altman sakukakamizidwa ndi choonadi" komanso kuti ali ndi "makhalidwe aŵiri omwe sawoneka mwa munthu yemweyo: choyamba ndi chikhumbo champhamvu chofuna kukondweretsa anthu, kukondedwa muzochita zilizonse, ndipo chachiwiri ndi pafupifupi kusowa kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu okhudzidwa ndi zotsatira zomwe zingabwere chifukwa cha kunyenga munthu."
Ndiyenera kukuuzani, ndinawerenga chiganizocho maulendo 500, ndipo ndinayesera kuganiza kuti nthawi zonse ndikunena zomwe anthu amafuna kuti azikondedwa ndiyeno osakhumudwa akamanama. Ndipo sindinathe kumvetsa mmene zinthuzo zimakhalira mwa munthu mmodzi. Mwalankhulapo kwambiri ndi Sam, ndipo mwalankhulapo ndi anthu amene anakumanapo ndi makhalidwe amenewa. Kodi amachita bwanji zimenezi?
Inde. Ndizosangalatsa pamlingo wamunthu chifukwa ndimayandikira mabungwe opereka lipoti monga chonchi ndikuyang'ana kwambiri kupangitsa munthu aliyense amene ali pamtima pake ndikufunafuna kumvetsetsa kwakukulu ndi chifundo. Pamene ndinayesera kuyandikira izi kuchokera ku lingaliro laumunthu ndikunena kuti, "Hey, izi zingakhale zopweteka kwa ine ngati anthu ambiri omwe ndagwira nawo ntchito atanena kuti ndine wabodza. Kodi mumanyamula bwanji kulemera kwake? Kodi mumalankhula bwanji za mankhwalawa?
Ndili ndi zina, m'malingaliro mwanga, mwina malingaliro aku West Coast oti, "Eya, ndimakonda ntchito yopuma." Koma osati zamtundu wanji wakulimbana kwathu kozama komwe ndikuganiza kuti ambiri aife tikadakhala kuti tikuwona malingaliro otere okhudza machitidwe athu ndi momwe timachitira anthu.
Ndikuganiza kuti zimapitanso ku yankho lalikulu la funsoli. Sam akunena kuti khalidweli layambitsa mavuto, komanso kuti ndilo gawo la zomwe zamupatsa mphamvu kuti afulumizitse kukula kwa OpenAI kotero kuti amatha kugwirizanitsa ndikukondweretsa magulu osiyanasiyana a anthu. Nthawi zonse amatsimikizira zigawo zonse zotsutsanazi kuti zomwe amasamala ndi zomwe amasamala. Ndipo izi zitha kukhala luso lothandiza kwambiri kwa woyambitsa. Ndalankhula ndi osunga ndalama omwe amati, "Chabwino, mwina ndi luso losathandiza kwenikweni pakuyendetsa kampani chifukwa imayambitsa mikangano yambiri."
Koma kumbali ya munthu wa Sam, ndikuganiza kuti chinthu chimene ndimatenga pamene ndikuyesera kugwirizanitsa pa msinkhu waumunthu ndikusowa kutsutsana kwakukulu, kulingalira, ndi kudziwerengera nokha, zomwe zimadziwitsanso kuti mphamvu zazikuluzikulu kapena udindo wa kampani yokonzekera IPO.
Ndi munthu yemwe, m'mawu a membala wina wakale wa board dzina lake Sue Yoon, yemwe adalemba pagawoli akunena kuti mpaka "kupanda nzeru" ndi mawu omwe amawagwiritsa ntchito, amatha kukhulupirira zenizeni zakusintha kwa malonda ake kapena amatha kudzitsimikizira yekha za iwo. Kapena ngati sakuwakhulupirira, amatha kuwadumphadumpha popanda kudzikayikira.
Ndikuganiza chinthu chomwe mukuchikamba, komwe inu kapena ine titha, pamene tikunena chinthucho ndikuzindikira kuti zimasemphana ndi chitsimikizo china chomwe tapanga, kukhala ndi mphindi yakuzizira kapena kudzifufuza tokha. Ndikuganiza kuti sizichitika ndi iye. Ndipo pali chikhalidwe chambiri cha Silicon Valley hype ndi chikhalidwe choyambitsa chomwe chimakumbatira izi.
Ndizoseketsa. Verge imamangidwa pazomwe zimayenderana ndi ndemanga zamalondapulogalamu. Ndi mtima wa zomwe timachita pano. Ndimagwira $ thililiyoni ya Apple R&D kamodzi pachaka ndikuti, "Foni iyi ndi isanu ndi iwiri." Ndipo zimatsimikizira zonena zathu zonse ndi malingaliro athu kwina. Tili ndi ntchito yowunikira, ndipo timathera nthawi yochuluka ndikungoyang'ana zinthu za AI ndikuti, "Kodi zimagwira ntchito?"
Izi zikuwoneka ngati zikusowa pazokambirana zambiri za AI monga zilili lero. Pali zokambirana zopanda malire pazomwe zingatheke, momwe zingakhalire zoopsa. Ndiyeno inu mukubowolera pansi, ndipo inu mukuti, “Kodi izo zikuchitadi zomwe zikuyenera kuchita lero?” Nthawi zina, yankho ndi inde. Koma nthawi zambiri, yankho limakhala ayi.
Izi zimamveka ngati zikugwirizana ndi chikhalidwe cha hype chomwe mukufotokoza komanso kuti, chabwino, ngati mukuti adzachita chinachake koma sichitero, ndipo wina akumva zoipa, zili bwino chifukwa tikupita ku chinthu chotsatira. Ndizo m'mbuyomu. Ndipo mu AI makamaka, Sam ndi wabwino kwambiri popanga malonjezo abwino.
Sabata ino, ndikuganiza tsiku lomwe nkhani yanu idasindikizidwa, OpenAI idatulutsa chikalata chomwe chimati tiyenera kuganiziranso za mgwirizano wamagulu ndikukhala ndi ndalama za AI kuchokera kuboma. Ili ndi lonjezo lalikulu la momwe teknoloji ina ingapangire tsogolo la dziko lapansi ndi momwe timakhalira, ndipo zonsezi zimadalira luso lamakono lomwe likugwira ntchito mofanana ndi momwe zinalonjezedwa kuti zidzagwira ntchito kapena ziyenera kugwira ntchito.
Kodi mudapezapo Sam akukayikira AI ikusintha kukhala AGI kapena nzeru zapamwamba kapena kufika kumapeto? Chifukwa ndicho chinthu chomwe ndimadabwa kwambiri nacho. Kodi pali malingaliro aliwonse okhudza ngati ukadaulo wapamwambawu ungathe kuchita zonse zomwe amati ungathe kuchita?
Ndilo gulu loyenera la mafunso. Pali akatswiri aukadaulo odalirika omwe tidalankhula nawo munkhani iyi - ndipo mwachiwonekere Sam Altman si m'modzi; ndi munthu wabizinesi - yemwe amati momwe Sam amalankhulira za nthawi yaukadaulo iyi yatsala pang'ono kutha. Pali zolemba zamabulogu zomwe zabwerera zaka zingapo pomwe Sam akunena kuti, "Tafika kale pachimake. AGI ili pano. Utsogoleri wanzeru uli pafupi. Tikhala ku mapulaneti ena. Tikhala tikuchiritsa mitundu yonse ya khansa." Zachidziwikire, sindimakongoletsa.
Khansarayo ndiyosangalatsa, kuti Sam akunyengerera munthu yemwe adachiritsa khansa ya galu wawo ndi ChatGPT, ndipo izi sizinachitike. Adalankhula ndi ChatGPT, ndipo izi zidawathandiza kuwongolera ofufuza omwe adachitadi ntchitoyi, koma imodzi ndi imodzi, chida ichi chidachiritsa galu uyu si nkhani.
Ndine wokondwa kuti mwadzutsa mfundoyi chifukwa ndikufuna kupitabe patsogolo pa nthawi yomwe kuthekera komanso kuopsa kwaukadaulo zidzatheka. Koma ndizoyenera kutchula mbali zazing'ono izi zomwe zimachitika nthawi zonse kuchokera kwa Sam Altman, komwe akuwoneka kuti alinso ndi izi.
Ndikutanthauza, kuti tigwiritse ntchito chitsanzo cha lipoti la WilmerHale, pomwe tinali ndi chidziwitso ichi chomwe sichinalembedwe, ndipo tinkafuna kudziwa ngati chidule chapakamwa panjira chinaperekedwa kwa wina aliyense kupatulapo mamembala awiri a board omwe Sam adathandizira kukhazikitsa kuyang'anira. Ndipo iye anati, “Inde, eya, ayi, ine ndikukhulupirira izo zinaperekedwa kwa aliyense amene analowa gulu pambuyo pake.” Ndipo tili ndi munthu amene ali ndi chidziwitso chachindunji cha mkhalidwewo akunena kuti ndi bodza chabe. Ndipo zikuonekadi kukhala choncho, kuti sizowona. Ngati tikufuna kukhala owolowa manja, mwina anauzidwa zolakwika.
Pali zambiri zotsimikizira izi wamba. Ndipo ndimagwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chimenecho mwa mbali chifukwa ndicho chitsanzo chabwino cha kusokoneza, tiyeni titchule, chomwe chingakhale ndi zotsatira zenizeni mwalamulo. Sindiyenera kukuwuzani, pansi pa malamulo amakampani a Delaware, ngati ma IPO akampani iyi, omwe ali ndi masheya atha, pansi pa gawo 220, kudandaula za izi ndikufunsa zolembedwa. Pali kale mamembala a board omwe akunena zinthu ngati, "Chabwino, dikirani kaye, mwachidule chikadachitika."
Kotero zinthu izi zomwe zimawoneka kuti zikudumpha mkamwa mwake nthawi zonse, zimatha kukhala ndi zotsatira zenizeni zogulitsa msika, zotsatira zenizeni za OpenAI. Kubweretsanso ku mtundu wa chilankhulo cha utopian hype chomwe chinayambikanso, sindikuganiza kuti sizinangochitika mwangozi tsiku lomwe chidutswachi chinatuluka, chimakhudzanso tonsefe, chifukwa kuopsa kwake kumakhala koopsa kwambiri pokhudzana ndi momwe zimakhalira.Kugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi zida, momwe zimagwiritsidwira ntchito kuzindikiritsa zida zankhondo, zomwe zingatheke, komanso chifukwa cha momwe anthu amawonekera kuti akupangitsa akatswiri azachuma ambiri kunena kuti, "Izi zili ndi zizindikiro zonse za kuwira."
Ngakhale Sam Altman adati, "Wina ataya ndalama zambiri pano." Izi zitha kusokoneza kwambiri kukula kwachuma ku America komanso padziko lonse lapansi, ngati pali kuphulika kowona komwe kumakhudza makampani onsewa akuchitirana mgwirizano, kulowa mu AI kwinaku akubwereka kwambiri. Chifukwa chake zomwe Sam Altman akunena ndizofunikira, ndipo ndikuganiza kuti kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe amakhala pafupi naye, mudanena kuti tidalankhula ndi opitilira zana, anali opitilira zana. Tinakambirana kumapeto komwe kuli ngati, "Kodi zingakhale zazing'ono kunena kuti zili ngati chiwerengero chokwera chotere?" Ndipo tinali ngati, "Inde, tiyeni tichepetse. Tizisewera bwino." Koma panali anthu ambiri ndipo ambiri mwa iwo amati, "Izi ndizovuta." Ndipo ndikuganiza kuti ndi chifukwa chake.
Ndikufunseni za nambala imeneyo. Monga momwe mudanenera, anthu adamasuka kwambiri ndi nkhawa m'kupita kwanthawi. Zikumveka ngati kukakamizidwa kuzungulira kuwira - mpikisano wopambana, kulipira ndalama zonsezi, kutuluka ngati wopambana, ku IPO - zasintha malingaliro ambiri. Zachidziwikire zidapangitsa kukakamizidwa kwambiri kwa Sam ndi OpenAI.
Tidasindikiza nkhani sabata ino za ma vibes a OpenAI. Nkhani yanu ndi gawo lake, koma kusintha kwakukulu kwa ogwira ntchito ku OpenAI - anthu akubwera ndikupita. Ofufuza onse akuchoka, makamaka ku Anthropic, zomwe ndikuganiza kuti ndizosangalatsa kwambiri. Mutha kuwona kuti kampaniyi ikumva kupsinjika, ndipo ikuyankha kukakamizidwako mwanjira ina.
Koma kenako ndinakumbukira kuti Sam anachotsedwa ntchito. Izi ndi zokumbukika kwa ine. Ndizosakumbukika kwa wina aliyense, koma ndidatenga foni ku Bronx Zoo nthawi ya 7PM Lachisanu, ndipo anali wina akunena kuti ayesa kubwezera Sam. Kenako tinakhala weekend tikuithamangitsa nkhaniyo. Ndipo ndinangokhala ngati, “Ndili kumalo osungira nyama. Mukufuna ndichite chiyani kuno?” Ndipo yankho linali, "Khalani pa foni." Chabwino, mwana wanga wamkazi anali ngati, "Choka foni." Ndipo ndi zomwe ndinachita.
Kunali kukwera kapena kufa kuti Sam abwerere. Kampaniyo inali ngati, "Ayi, sitikulola kuti gulu liwotche Sam Altman." Ogulitsa ndalama, omwe atchulidwa m'gawo lanu, "Tinapita kunkhondo," ndikuganiza, ndi malo a Thrive Capital, "kuti abwezeretse Sam." Microsoft idapita kunkhondo kuti Sam abwerere. Pambuyo pake, ndipo tsopano aliyense ali ngati, "Ife tikupita ku IPO. Tafika kumapeto. Tapeza munthu wathu, ndipo adzatifikitsa kumapeto. Tikukhudzidwa kuti ndi wabodza."
Nanga n’cifukwa ciani inali nkhondo yomubwezela panthawiyo? Chifukwa sizikuwoneka ngati chilichonse chasintha. Mumalankhula za ma memo omwe Ilya Sutskever ndi [Anthropic CEO] Dario Amodei adasunga pomwe anali m'nthawi ya Sam Altman. Chodetsa nkhaŵa choyamba cha Ilya chinali chakuti Sam ndi wabodza.
Palibe chomwe chasintha. Nanga n’cifukwa ciani inali nkhondo yomubweza panthawiyo? Ndipo tsopano ife tiri kumapeto, zikuwoneka ngati nkhawa zonse zili poyera.
Chabwino, choyamba, pepani kwa mwana wanu wamkazi ndi mnzanga ndi anthu ena onse ozungulira atolankhani.
[Akuseka] Inali sabata kwa aliyense.
Inde, zimatengera moyo wa munthu, ndipo nkhaniyi ili ndi yanga, nthawi yomaliza. Zimakhudzana ndi mutu uwu wa utolankhani komanso mwayi wodziwa zambiri, ndikuganiza. Otsatsa ndalama omwe adapita kunkhondo chifukwa cha Sam ndipo onse adachita nawo gawo poonetsetsa kuti wabwerera, ndipo gulu lomwe linapangidwa makamaka kuti liteteze ntchito yopanda phindu kuyika chitetezo pakukula ndikuwotcha woyang'anira ngati sangadaliridwe nazo, adachoka. Zonse zinali chifukwa, inde, zolimbikitsa za msika zinalipo, sichoncho?
Sam adatha kutsimikizira anthu kuti, "Chabwino, kampaniyo ingowonongeka." Koma chifukwa chomwe anali ndi chithandizo chinali kusowa kwa chidziwitso. Ogulitsawo, nthawi zambiri, tsopano amati, "Ndikayang'ana m'mbuyo, ndikuganiza kuti ndikanakhala ndi nkhawa zambiri ndikanadziwa bwino zomwe akunenazo ndi zomwe zikudetsa nkhawa."
Osati onse a iwo;malingaliro amasiyana, ndipo timatchula malingaliro osiyanasiyana, koma pali ena ofunikira omwe amatsatira zambiri. Gulu lomwe linathamangitsa Sam linali, mwa mawu a munthu mmodzi yemwe kale anali pa bolodi, "JV kwambiri," ndipo iwo anafufuta kwambiri mpirawo. Ndipo timalemba madandaulo oyambira, ndipo anthu amatha kusankha okha ngati akukhudzidwa ndi vuto lomwe akumva kuti ndilofunika, koma mkanganowo ndi chidziwitsocho sichinaperekedwe.
Analandira zimene ena a iwo tsopano akuvomereza kukhala uphungu woipa wazamalamulo. Kuti mufotokoze, mudzakumbukira mawuwo, ndipo mwina ambiri mwa omvera anu ndi owonera adzakumbukira mawuwo ngati kusowa konena. Izi ndi zomwe zidatsitsidwa, ndiye kuti sanalandire mafoni.
Sanayankhe mafoni. Ndikutsimikiza kuti mwayesa. Aliyense amene ndimamudziwa anayesa, ndipo zinafika poti, monga mtolankhani, simukuyenera kupereka upangiri wa magwero anu, koma ndidakhala ngati, "Izi zichoka ngati simuyamba kufotokoza nokha."
Ndipo ndi zomwe zinachitika. Iwalani atolankhani. Munali ndi Satya Nadella akuti, "N'chiyani chinachitika? Ndipo ndiye wothandizira wamkulu wamakampani. Kenako muli ndi Satya akuyimbira [LinkedIn co-founder] Reid Hoffman ndi Reid akuyimba mozungulira ndikuti, "Sindikudziwa zomwe zidachitika."
Iwo ali momveka mukusowa kwa chidziwitso, kuyang'ana zizindikiro zachikhalidwe zosakhala za AI zomwe zingalungamitse kuwombera kwadzidzidzi kotereku. Monga, chabwino, kodi zinali zolakwa za kugonana? Kodi kunali chinyengo? Ndipo zonse zobisika, koma ndikuganiza zomveka, zotsutsana kuti ukadaulo uwu ndi wosiyana komanso kuti kuchulukana kosalekeza kotereku kumatha kukhala ndi phindu pabizinesi iyi komanso mwina padziko lonse lapansi, kudatayika kwambiri. Chifukwa chake zolimbikitsa za capitalist zidapambana, komanso anthu omwe adazipanga adatuluka ndipo samagwira ntchito ndi chidziwitso chonse.
Ndikufuna kungofunsa za "zomwe aliyense akuganiza kuti ndi" mphindi imodzi, chifukwa ndidawona nkhaniyo, ndipo ndidati, "O, china chake choyipa chiyenera kuti chachitika." Mwachita zambiri #MeToo lipoti, otchuka. Munaphwanya nkhani ya Harvey Weinstein.
Mudakhala nthawi yayitali mukunena zonena izi zomwe ndikuganiza kuti zidakhala zopanda pake: kuti Altman adagwiririra ana kapena kulemba ganyu ochita zogonana, kapenanso kupha mluzu wa OpenAI. Ndikutanthauza, inu ndinu munthu amene munganene zinthu izi mwamphamvu kwambiri. Kodi munaganiza kuti zapita pachabe?
Chabwino, taonani, ine sindiri mu bizinesi yoti chinachake chachitika. Zomwe ndinganene ndikuti ndidakhala miyezi ingapo ndikuyang'ana zonenazi ndipo sindinapeze umboni wawo. Ndipo zinali zochititsa chidwi kwa ine kuti anyamata awa, makampani awa omwe ali ndi mphamvu zambiri pa tsogolo lathu, akugwiritsa ntchito mopambanitsa nthawi ndi chuma chawo pankhondo yamatope yachibwana.
Mkulu wina akufotokoza kuti "Shakespearean." Kuchuluka kwa ndalama zofufuza payekha ndi zolemba zotsutsa zomwe zikuphatikizidwa ndizosalekeza. Ndipo chomvetsa chisoni ndichakuti mtundu wa zinthu zabwino, zomwe zimaperekedwa ndi opikisana ndi Sam, zimangoganiziridwa kuti ndizowona, sichoncho? Pali zonena kuti amatsata anyamata achichepere, ndipo pamaphwando ambiri ku Silicon Valley, mumamva izi. Pamsonkhano wachigawo, ndamva akubwerezedwa mobwerezabwereza ndi akuluakulu odalirika, otchuka: "Aliyense amadziwa kuti izi ndi zoona."
Chomvetsa chisoni ndichakuti ndimalankhula za komwe izi zimachokera, ma vector osiyanasiyana omwe amafalitsidwa. Elon Musk ndi anzake akuwoneka kuti akukankhira zolemba zolimba ngati zopanda pake. Zimakhala zopanda pake pamene muyamba kuyang'ana pazomwe zimayambira. Chomvetsa chisoni ndichakuti zimabisa maumboni ochulukirapo pano omwe ndikuganiza kuti akuyenera kuyang'aniridwa ndi kuganiziridwa mwachangu.
Mutu wina womwe umabwera m'nkhaniyi ndi pafupifupi mantha kuti Sam ali ndi abwenzi ambiri - adayikapo ndalama m'makampani ambiri kuyambira paudindo wake wakale monga CEO wa Y Combinator, kungoyika ndalama zake, zina zomwe zikutsutsana kwambiri ndi udindo wake monga CEO wa OpenAI - ndipo pali chete momuzungulira.
Zinandikhudza mtima pamene ndinali kuwerenga mzere umodzi makamaka. Mumalongosola ma memo a Ilya Sutskever, ndipo angotuluka ku Silicon Valley. Aliyenseamawatcha kuti Ilya memos. Koma pali ngakhale chete pamenepo. Amadutsa mozungulira, koma samakambidwa. Kodi mukuganiza kuti izi zikuchokera kuti? Ndi mantha? Kodi ndi chikhumbo chofuna kupeza ndalama za angelo? Kodi zimenezi zikuchokera kuti?
Ndikuganiza kuti ndi wamantha kwambiri, ndikhala woona mtima. Atanena za nkhani zachitetezo cha dziko komwe magwero ake ndi a whistleblowers omwe amasiya kutaya chilichonse ndikuyimbidwa mlandu, amachitabe zoyenera ndikulankhula za zinthu zomwe zimapangitsa kuti aziyankha mlandu. Ndagwiritsapo ntchito nkhani zokhudzana ndi upandu wakugonana zomwe mudazitchula, pomwe magwero amakhumudwa kwambiri ndikuwopa kubwezera.
Nthawi zambiri kuzungulira uku, mukuchita ndi anthu omwe ali ndi mbiri yawo komanso mphamvu zawo. Iwo mwina ndi anthu otchuka okha kapena azunguliridwa ndi anthu otchuka. Ali ndi moyo wolimba wamabizinesi. M'malingaliro mwanga, ndizochepa kwambiri kuti iwo azilankhula za izi. Ndipo mwamwayi, singano ikuyenda monga tidanenera kale, ndipo anthu tsopano akulankhula zambiri.
Koma kwa nthawi yayitali, anthu amangotseka pakamwa chifukwa ndikuganiza kuti chikhalidwe cha Silicon Valley ndi chodzikonda komanso chopanda chifundo komanso chokonda kukula. Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti izi zikuvutitsa ngakhale ena mwa anthu omwe adachita nawo ntchito yothamangitsa Sam, komwe mudawona m'masiku otsatira, inde, chinthu chimodzi chomwe chidapangitsa kuti abwerere ndikuthamangitsidwa kwa mamembala akale a board ndikuti adasonkhanitsa osunga ndalama omwe adasokonezedwa pazifukwa zake.
Koma chinanso n’chakuti anthu ena ambiri ozungulira ilo amene anali ndi nkhawazo ndi kuwalankhula mwachangu anangopinda ngati zopukutira ndikusintha kamvekedwe kawo atangoona mphepo ikuwomba mwanjira ina, ndipo anafuna kulowa m’sitima yopindula.
Zakuda kwambiri, moona mtima, m'malingaliro anga monga mtolankhani.
Ena mwa anthuwa ndi Mira Murati, yemwe, ndikukhulupirira, kwa mphindi 20 anali CEO watsopano wa OpenAI. Kenako anasinthidwa. Zinali zovuta kwambiri, ndipo mwachiwonekere, Sam adabwerera. Munthu wina ndi Ilya Sutskever, yemwe anali mmodzi mwa mavoti kuti achotse Sam, ndiyeno anasintha maganizo ake, kapena adanena kuti anasintha maganizo ake, ndiyeno ananyamuka kukayambitsa kampani yake. Kodi mukudziwa chimene chinamuchititsa kusintha maganizo? Kodi inali ndalama chabe?
Chabwino, ndipo kunena momveka bwino, sindikusankha awiriwo. Palinso mamembala ena a board omwe adachita nawo kuwomberako omwe nawonso adakhala chete. Ndikuganiza kuti ili ngati vuto lalikulu lamagulu. Awa, nthawi zina, ndi anthu omwe anali ndi mphamvu zamakhalidwe abwino zochenjeza ndikuchitapo kanthu, ndipo izi ziyenera kuyamikiridwa. Ndipo ndi momwe mumatsimikizira kuyankha. Izi zikanathandiza anthu ambiri omwe akukhudzidwa ndi ukadaulo uwu. Zikadathandiza makampani kukhalabe osamala zachitetezo.
Koma pochita ndi oyimbira mluzu ndi anthu omwe amayesa kupangitsa kuti aziyankha mlandu kwambiri, mumawonanso kuti zimatengera kulimba mtima kuti musamakhulupirire zomwe mumakhulupirira. Ndipo makampaniwa alidi odzaza ndi anthu omwe samatsatira zomwe amakhulupirira.
Ngakhale akuganiza kuti akumanga Mulungu wa digito yemwe mwanjira ina adzathetsa ntchito zonse kapena kupanga ntchito zambiri, kapena china chake chidzachitika.
Chabwino, ndicho chinthu. Kotero chikhalidwe cha kusaima ndi zomwe mumakhulupirira komanso nkhawa zonse zamakhalidwe zomwe zikugwera m'mphepete mwa njira pamene pali kutentha kulikonse kapena chirichonse chomwe chingawononge maimidwe anu mubizinesi mwina zonse zili bwino komanso zabwino pamlingo wina wamakampani monga momwe amachitira omwe akupanga mtundu uliwonse wa widget.
Koma awa ndi anthu omwewa omwe akunena kuti, "Izi zitha kutipha tonsefe." Ndipo kachiwiri, simuyenera kupita ku Terminator Skynet kwambiri. Pali zoopsa zingapo zomwe zikuwonekera kale. Ndizowona, ndipo akulondola kuchenjeza za izi, koma muyenera kukhala ndi munthu wina wokhala pampando wakumbuyo momwe zinthu ziwirizi zingakhalire mwa anthu omwewo pomwe akuwonetsa machenjezo achangu, mwina akulowetsa chala ndikuyesera kuchita chinachake, ndiyeno akungopinda ndikugwa chete.
Ichi ndichifukwa chake mutha kukhala ndi mitundu iyi ya zinthu zomwe sizimalembedwa ndikusesedwa pansi pa rug, ndipo palibe amene amalankhula za izi poyera kwa zaka zambiri zitachitika.
Maphwando achilengedwe, odalirika pano sangakhale ma CEO amakampani awa; adzakhala maboma. Ku United States, mwinandi maboma aboma, mwina ndi boma la feduro.
Zachidziwikire, makampani onsewa akufuna kukhala padziko lonse lapansi. Pali zambiri zapadziko lonse lapansi pano. Ndidawona OpenAI, Google, ndi Anthropic zonse zimathandizira oyang'anira Biden kuti atulutse dongosolo la AI. Zinali zopanda mano pamapeto pake. Zinangonena kuti amayenera kukambirana zomwe zitsanzo zawo zimatha ndikumasula kuyesa kotetezedwa. Ndiyeno onse anaikira kumbuyo Lipenga, ndipo Trump anadza nafafaniza zonsezo nati, “Ife tiyenera kukhala ampikisano. Ndi ufulu-kwa-zonse.
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, onse akuyesera kupeza ndalama kuchokera ku mayiko a Middle East omwe ali ndi ndalama zambiri zamafuta ndipo akufuna kusintha chuma chawo. Amenewo ndi andale. Ndikumva ngati andale ayenera kumvetsetsa kuti wina akulankhula kuchokera kumbali zonse ziwiri za pakamwa pawo, ndipo sangakhumudwe kwambiri ngati wina akhumudwitsidwa pamapeto pake, koma andale akukwera nawonso. Kodi mukuganiza kuti n’chifukwa chiyani zili choncho?
Izi ndiye, ndikuganiza, chifukwa chake chidutswacho chili chofunikira m'malingaliro mwanga komanso chifukwa chake chinali choyenera kuwononga nthawi yonseyi komanso mwatsatanetsatane. Tili m'malo omwe machitidwe omwe, monga mukunenera, akuyenera kuyang'anira angotsala pang'ono. Ndilo pambuyo pa Nzika za United States, kumene kuyenda kwa ndalama kumakhala kopanda malire, ndipo ndizovuta kwambiri za vutolo pafupi ndi AI, kumene kuli ma PAC awa omwe akuchulukirachulukira ndikusefukira kwa ndalama kuti athetse malamulo omveka bwino ku boma ndi federal level.
Muli ndi [OpenAI co-founder] Greg Brockman, wachiwiri kwa Sam, yemwe amathandizira mwachindunji kwa angapo mwa iwo. Zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kugwidwa kwa aphungu ndi olamulira omwe angakhalepo, ndipo ndizovuta kuti mutulukemo. Chomvetsa chisoni n'chakuti, ndikuganiza kuti pali njira zosavuta zoyendetsera ndondomeko, zina zomwe zikuyesedwa kwinakwake padziko lapansi, zomwe zingathandize ena mwa mavutowa.
Mutha kukhala ndi kuyezetsa koyenera kotetezedwa kusanachitike, zomwe zikuchitika kale ku Europe kwamitundu yam'malire. Mutha kukhala ndi zofunikira zolembedwa zamtundu wamtundu wa kafukufuku wamkati momwe tidawona kuti zinthu sizikulembedwa pankhaniyi. Mutha kukhala ndi njira zowunikiranso zachitetezo chamtundu wamitundu yamitundu yaku Middle East zokhumba zomwe Sam Altman amakankhira.
Monga mukunenera, anali kuchita nyambo iyi ndikusinthana ndi oyang'anira a Biden, nati, "Tilamulireni, mutilamulire," ndikuwathandiza kupanga dongosolo lalikulu, ndiyeno pomwe Trump amalowa, m'masiku oyamba, osaletsa, "Tiyeni tifulumire ndipo tiyeni timange malo akulu azidziwitso ku Abu Dhabi." Mutha kukhala, iyi ndi yophweka, monga chitetezo cha whistleblower. Palibe lamulo la federal loteteza ogwira ntchito ku kampani ya AI omwe amawulula zamtunduwu zachitetezo zomwe zikuwulutsidwa munkhaniyi.
Tili ndi zochitika pomwe Jan Leike, yemwe anali wamkulu wachitetezo ku OpenAI, anali kutsogolera kulumikizana kwakukulu pakampani. Amalembera a board, makamaka omwe amawopseza, akunena kuti kampaniyo ikuchoka pachitetezo chake. Awa ndi mitundu ya anthu omwe akuyenera kukhala ndi bungwe loyang'anira omwe angapiteko, ndipo ayenera kukhala ndi chitetezo chodziwika bwino chamitundu yomwe timawona m'magawo ena. Izi ndizosavuta kutengera mtundu wa Sarbanes-Oxley.
Ndikuganiza kuti ngakhale vuto ndi lalikulu bwanji la Silicon Valley potengera mphamvu zonse zamphamvu, ndipo ngakhale kuti ena mwa mabungwewa omwe angapereke kuyang'anira ndi kusungitsa ali osowa bwanji, ndimakhulupirirabe masamu a demokalase komanso andale odzikonda. Ndipo pali zambiri zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira zomwe anthu aku America ambiri amaganiza kuti nkhawa, mafunso, kapena zoopsa za AI pakadali pano zimaposa phindu.
Kotero ine ndikuganiza kuti kusefukira kwa ndalama mu ndale kuchokera ku AI, ziri mkati mwa mphamvu zathu zonse kuti zikhale gwero la funso la funso ponena za ndale. Anthu aku America akapita kukavota, akuyenera kuyang'anitsitsa ngati anthu omwe amawavotera, makamaka ngati ali osatsutsika komanso otsutsana ndi malamulo, chifukwa cha nkhawa zonsezi, akusungidwa ndi chidwi chachikulu chaukadaulo. Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza ngati anthu angawerenge zidutswa ngati izi, kumvera ma podcasts ngati awa, ndikusamala mokwanira kuti aganizire mozamazisankho zawo ngati ovota, pali mwayi weniweni wopanga chigawo ku Washington cha oimira omwe amayang'anitsitsa ndikukakamiza kuyang'anira.
Izi zitha kukhala chimodzi mwazinthu zabwino kwambiri zomwe ndidamvapo aliyense akunena zamakampani a AI omwe alipo. Ndayamikira kwambiri. Ndine wokondwa ndi kuvota komwe mukunena. Pali zambiri tsopano. Zonse ndizofanana, ndipo zikuwoneka ngati achinyamata ambiri, makamaka, amakumana ndi AI, amakhala osakhulupirira komanso okwiya kwambiri. Uwu ndiye mwayi wa mavoti onse. Ndipo ine ndimayang'ana pa izo, ndipo ine ndikuganiza, chabwino, eya, andale anzeru amangotsutsana nazo. Amangonena kuti, "Tipanga ukadaulo waukulu."
Kenako ndimaganiza za zaka 20 zapitazi, wandale akunena kuti adzayankha paukadaulo waukulu, ndipo ndikuvutikira kuti ndipeze mphindi imodzi yaukadaulo wawukulu. Chinthu chokha chimene chimandipangitsa ine kuganiza kuti izi zikhoza kukhala zosiyana ndi, chabwino, muyenera kumanga malo osungira deta, ndipo mukhoza kuvota motsutsa izo, ndipo mukhoza kupempha motsutsa izo, ndipo mukhoza kutsutsa izo.
Ndikuganiza kuti pali wandale yemwe adangowombera nyumba yawo chifukwa adavotera malo opangira data. Kuvutana kukufikira, ndinganene kuti, kutentha thupi. Mwafotokoza zakukhazikika kwa Silicon Valley. Ichi ndi chilengedwe chotsekedwa. Zimamveka ngati akuganiza kuti akhoza kuyendetsa dziko. Akuika ndalama zambiri mu ndale, ndipo akulimbana ndi zenizeni kuti anthu sakonda mankhwala, zomwe sizimawapatsa chivundikiro chochuluka. Pamene amagwiritsira ntchito kwambiri katunduyo, amakhumudwa kwambiri, ndipo ndale akuyamba kuona kuti pali zotsatira zenizeni zothandizira makampani opanga zamakono pa anthu omwe amawaimira.
Mwalankhula ndi anthu ambiri. Kodi mukuganiza kuti ndizotheka kuti makampani opanga zamakono aphunzire phunziro lomwe lili patsogolo pawo?
Mukunena kuti zikuwoneka ngati akuganiza kuti atha kuyendetsa dziko popanda kuyankha. Sindikuganiza kuti izi zimafunikira "zomveka" zoyenerera. Ndikutanthauza, mumayang'ana chilankhulo chomwe Peter Thiel akugwiritsa ntchito, ndizomveka. Inde, ndicho chitsanzo chonyanyira. Ndipo Sam Altman, ngakhale ali pafupi ndikudziwitsidwa ndi malingaliro a Thiel mpaka pamlingo wina, ndi munthu wosiyana kwambiri yemwe angamveke mosiyana komanso woyezedwa kwambiri.
Koma ndikuganiza malingaliro ochulukirapo omwe mumapeza kuchokera kwa Thiel, omwe kwenikweni ndi awa: Tathana ndi demokalase, sitikuzifunanso. Tili ndi zambiri kotero kuti timangofuna kumanga zipinda zathu zazing'ono. Sitikuchitanso ndi a Carnegies kapena Rockefellers panonso, kumene iwo ndi oipa, koma amamva kuti akufunika kutenga nawo mbali mu mgwirizano wa anthu ndi kumanga zinthu kwa anthu. Pali nihilism yeniyeni yomwe yakhazikitsidwa.
Ndipo ndikuganiza kuti zakhala zolimbikitsana m'mbiri yaposachedwa yaku America yamakampani akuluakulu ndi makampani azinsinsi omwe amapeza mphamvu zaboma pomwe mabungwe ademokalase omwe angawayankhe ali opanda pake. Sindili ndi chiyembekezo choganiza kuti anyamatawa adzangodzuka tsiku lina ndikuganiza, "Ha, mwina tikufunika kutenga nawo mbali pagulu ndikuthandizira kulimbikitsa anthu."
Ndikutanthauza, mumayang'ana ngati chitsanzo cha microcosmic cha The Giving Pledge, pomwe panali mphindi yomwe imawoneka ngati yachifundo, ndipo mphindiyo tsopano yadutsa ndipo ngakhale kunyozedwa. Limenelo ndi vuto, vuto lalikulu la kusowa kwa udindo lomwe ndikuganiza kuti lingathe kuthetsedwa pokhapokha. Izi ziyenera kukhala ovota omwe akusonkhanitsa ndi kudzutsa mphamvu za uyang'aniro wa boma. Ndipo mukulondola kunena kuti vector yayikulu yomwe anthu atha kukwaniritsa ndi ya komweko. Zimakhudzana ndi komwe zomangamanga zikumangidwa.
Munatchula zina mwazowopsa zomwe zimadzetsa ziwawa ndi ziwopsezo, ndipo mwachiwonekere, palibe amene ayenera kukhala wachiwawa kapena kuwopseza. Ndipo sindinenso pano kuti ndipangire malingaliro enaake kupatula kungopereka njira zina zomwe zimawoneka ngati zofunika komanso zikugwira ntchito kwina kulikonse padziko lapansi, sichoncho? Kapena omwe adagwirapo ntchito m'magawo ena. Sindinabwere kuti ndinene kuti ndi ati omwe ayenera kuphedwa komanso momwe angachitire.
Ndikuganiza kuti china chake chiyenera kuchitika, ndipo chiyenera kukhala chakunja, osati kungodalira makampaniwa. Chifukwa chabwinotsopano tili ndi vuto lomwe makampani omwe akupanga chatekinoloje ndi okonzeka bwino kuti amvetsetse kuopsa kwake, ndipo kwenikweni ndi omwe amatichenjeza za zoopsa, ndi omwe alibe chilichonse koma chilimbikitso chopita mofulumira ndikunyalanyaza zoopsazo. Ndipo mulibe chilichonse chotsutsana nacho. Chifukwa chake, kusintha kulikonse komwe kungachitike malinga ndi zenizeni, china chake chiyenera kutsutsana ndi izi. Ndipo ndikubwererabe ku chiyembekezo chimenecho kuti anthu akadali ofunika.
Nthawi zambiri ndimagula mkangano wanu. Ndiloleni ndingopanga katsutso kakang'ono kakang'ono komwe ndikuganiza kuti nditha kufotokoza. Chinanso chomwe chingachitike kunja kwa bokosi lovota ndikuti kuwira kumatuluka, sichoncho? Kuti si makampani onsewa omwe amafika pamapeto, komanso kuti palibe msika wazinthu zomwe zikuyenera kugwiritsa ntchito ogula AI. Ndipo kachiwiri, sindikuziwonabe, koma ndine wowunika zaukadaulo wa ogula, ndipo mwina ndili ndi miyezo yapamwamba kuposa wina aliyense.
Pali msika wazinthu zomwe zikuyenerana ndi bizinesi, sichoncho? Kukhala ndi gulu la othandizira a AI kulemba mulu wa mapulogalamu kumawoneka ngati msika weniweni wa zida izi. Ndipo mutha kuwerenga mikangano yamakampani awa akuti, "Tathana ndi zolemba, ndipo zikutanthauza kuti titha kuthetsa chilichonse. Ngati titha kupanga mapulogalamu, titha kuthana ndi vuto lililonse."
Ndikuganiza kuti pali malire enieni pazinthu zomwe mapulogalamu angachite. Ndizo zabwino mu bizinesi. Mapulogalamu sangathe kuthetsa vuto lililonse kwenikweni, koma ayenera kufika kumeneko. Ayenera kumaliza ntchitoyo, ndipo mwina si aliyense amene amafika kumapeto. Ndipo pali kuwonongeka, ndipo kuwira uku kuphulika, ndipo mwinamwake OpenAI kapena Anthropic kapena xAI, imodzi mwa makampaniwa ikulephera, ndipo ndalama zonsezi zimachoka.
Kodi mukuganiza kuti izi zingakhudze izi? Kwenikweni, ndiloleni ndifunse funso loyamba. OpenAI ili pomwepo pa IPO. Pali zokayikitsa zambiri za Sam ngati mtsogoleri. Kodi mukuganiza kuti adzafika pomaliza?
Sindidzaneneratu, koma ndikuganiza kuti mukukweza mfundo yofunikira, yomwe ndi yakuti zolimbikitsa za msika zimakhala zofunikira mkati mwa Silicon Valley, ndipo kuwonetsetsa kwa mphamvu zomwe zikuchitika panopa kungathe kusokoneza, kachiwiri, malinga ndi otsutsa, kuthamanga mpaka pansi pa chitetezo.
Ndiwonjezanso kuti, ngati muyang'ana mbiri yakale pomwe pali zolimbikitsa zofananira komanso zowoneka ngati zosatheka za msika komanso zomwe zingawononge anthu, pali milandu. Ndipo mukuwona ngati gawo lodetsa nkhawa posachedwapa. Sam Altman ali kunja sabata ino akuvomereza malamulo omwe angateteze makampani a AI ku mitundu ina yazovuta zomwe OpenAI idakumana nazo pamilandu yakufa molakwika, mwachitsanzo. Zoonadi, pali chikhumbo chokhala ndi chishango chimenecho ku udindo.
Ndikuganiza kuti makhothi atha kukhalabe njira yabwino, ndipo zidzakhala zosangalatsa kuwona momwe ma suti awa amapangidwira. Mwawona kale, mwachitsanzo, suti yochita kalasi, yomwe ine ndi ambiri, olemba ena ambiri omwe ndikudziwa kuti ndi mamembala, motsutsana ndi Anthropic chifukwa chogwiritsa ntchito mabuku omwe anali ovomerezeka. Ngati pali malingaliro anzeru azamalamulo ndi odandaula omwe amasamala, monga momwe tawonera kale pamilandu yochokera ku fodya wamkulu kupita ku mphamvu zazikulu, mutha kupezanso zowongolera ndi zolimbikitsa zina kuti muchepetse, kusamala, kapena kuteteza anthu mwanjira imeneyo.
Zimamveka ngati mtengo wonse wamakampani a AI umakhala pa tanthauzo lachifundo kwambiri logwiritsa ntchito mwachilungamo. Sizikubwera mokwanira. Mtengo wamakampaniwa ukhoza kusokonekera ngati akuyenera kukulipirani inu ndi wina aliyense amene ntchito yake idagwira, koma ndizovuta kuziganizira, chifukwa chake sitimangoganiza za izi. Pambuyo pake, zinthu zonsezi tsopano zikuyenda motayika. Monga lero, onse akuthamanga motayika. Amawotcha ndalama zambiri kuposa momwe angathere. Nthawi zina, amafunika kusintha kusintha.
Sam ndi wochita bizinesi. Monga mwanenera kangapo, iye si katswiri. Iye ndi munthu wabizinesi. Kodi mukuganiza kuti ali wokonzeka kutembenuza chosinthira ndikuti, "Tipanga dola?" Chifukwa ndikafunsa, "Kodi mukuganiza kuti OpenAI ikwanitsa?" Ndi pamene iwo ayenera kupanga dola. Ndipo mpaka pano, Sam wapanga ndalama zake zonse pofunsa anthu ena ndalama zawo m'malo moti makampani ake azipanga ndalama.
Chabwino, ndiye funso lalikulu lomwe silingachitike kwa Silicon Valley, kwa osunga ndalama, kwa anthu.Mukuwona zonena ndikuchoka ku OpenAI zomwe zikuwoneka kuti zikuwonetsa mantha pazimenezi. Kutseka Sora, kutseka mapulojekiti ena owonjezera, kuyesera kuyika zero pachinthu chachikulu. Koma kumbali ina, mukuwonabe, nthawi yomweyo, matani a mishoni akukwawa, sichoncho? Ngakhale chitsanzo chaching'ono - mwachiwonekere sichiri chofunikira pa bizinesi yawo - ndikupeza TBPN.
Mwa njira, pomwe tinkafika pamapeto ndikuwunika zowona, kampani yomwe ikuyang'anizana ndi kuwunika kwa atolankhani imapeza nsanja pomwe ingathe kuwongolera zokambirana. Ndikuganiza kuti pali osunga ndalama ambiri omwe ali ndi nkhawa, malinga ndi zokambirana zomwe ndakhala nazo, kuti vuto ili la kulonjeza zinthu zonse kwa anthu onse limaphatikizaponso kusowa kwachindunji mu chitsanzo chachikulu cha bizinesi. Ndipo ndikutanthauza, muli pafupi ndi mtundu wa kulosera ndi kuwonera msika kuposa momwe ine ndiriri. Ndikusiyani inu ndi omvera kuti mukhale oweruza ngati akuganiza kuti OpenAI ikhoza kusintha kusintha.
Chabwino, ndidafunsa funsoli chifukwa muli ndi mawu kuchokera kwa mkulu wa Microsoft, ndikuti, "cholowa cha Sam chikhoza kufanana ndi Bernie Madoff kapena Sam Bankman-Fried," osati Steve Jobs. Kumeneko ndi kuyerekezera ndithu. Munapanga chiyani pakufananizako?
Ndikuganiza kuti ndi mawu ofotokozera. Gawo la Steve Jobs silinali gawo la mawuwo. Koma pali mtundu wina wochititsa chidwi chifukwa umanenedwa kuti, "Ndikuganiza kuti pali mwayi wawung'ono koma weniweni kuti adzakhale SBF kapena scammer wa Madoff." Kutanthauza, m'malingaliro mwanga, osati kuti Sam akuimbidwa mlandu wamtundu wachinyengo kapena milandu, koma kuti kuchuluka kwa chinyengo ndi chinyengo kuchokera kwa Sam kungakhale ndi mwayi wokumbukiridwa pamlingo womwewo.
Inde, ndikuganiza kuti chomwe chili chochititsa chidwi kwambiri pa mawuwa, moona mtima, ndikuti mumayimbira pa Microsoft ndipo simumamva ngati, "Ndizopenga. Sitinamvepo zimenezo." Mumapeza zambiri ngati, "Inde, anthu ambiri pano amaganiza choncho" zomwe ndi zodabwitsa. Ndipo ndikuganiza kuti zimapita ku mafunso abizinesi awa.
Wogulitsa ndalama wina anandiuza, mwachitsanzo, chifukwa cha momwe khalidweli lapitirizira zaka zambiri pambuyo pa kuwombera "- ndipo adaganizanso kuti ili linali lingaliro losangalatsa - kuti sikuti Sam ayenera kukhala pansi pa mndandanda, monga ayenera kukhala otsika kwambiri mwa anthu omwe sayenera kupanga lusoli, chifukwa pali zomwe Musk anena kuti ndizofunika. amamuyika iye mwina pansi pa mndandanda wa anthu amene ayenera kumanga AGI, ndipo pansi pa ena angapo otsogola pa ntchitoyi.
Chifukwa chake ndimaganiza kuti uku kunali kuwunikira kosangalatsa, ndipo ndi mtundu wamalingaliro omwe ndikuganiza kuti mumapeza kuchokera kwa akatswiri enieni omwe mwina sakugula kwambiri zachitetezo. Amangotengera kukula, ndipo amaganiza kuti OpenAI tsopano ili ndi vuto ndi Sam Altman.
Chidutswa cha Microsoft ndichosangalatsa kwambiri. Kampaniyo idaganiza kuti ili pamwamba pa dziko lapansi. Kuti adapanga ndalama izi ndipo adzalumpha aliyense, makamaka makamaka, Google, ndikubwerera ku zabwino za ogula. Mlingo womwe amawotchedwa ndi ulendowu - iyi ndi kampani yoyendetsa bwino kwambiri - sindikuganiza kuti ikhoza kunyamulidwa.
Munatchulapo za anthu a m’Baibulo komanso makhalidwe ake. Ndikufuna kuthera apa ndi funso kuchokera kwa omvera athu. Ndinanena pa pulogalamu yathu ina, The Vergecast, kuti ndikulankhula nanu, ndipo ndinati, "Ngati muli ndi mafunso kwa Ronan pa nkhaniyi, ndidziwitse." Chifukwa chake tili ndi imodzi pano yomwe ndikuganiza kuti ikugwirizana bwino ndi zomwe mukufotokoza. Ndingokuwerengerani inu:
"Kodi zodzilungamitsa zamakhalidwe oyipa, zochita za Altman ndi atsogoleri ena a AI, zikusiyana bwanji ndi zomwe Ronan adamva kuchokera kwa atsogoleri ena apamwamba pazandale ndi zofalitsa? Kodi onse salungamitsa zochita zawo ponena kuti umu ndi mmene dziko limasinthira? Ngati sindichita izi, wina atero?"
Inde, pali zambiri zomwe zikuzungulira. Ndinganene chomwe chili chosiyana ndi AI ndikuti kuchuluka komwe kulipo kukhala kokwezeka mwapadera kumatanthauza kuti mawu owopsa ndi owopsa, sichoncho? Muli ndi Sam Altmankuti, “Izi zikhoza kukhala zounikira kwa tonsefe.” Komanso, otsutsa anganene kuti, kupenga komwe wofunsayo akunena ndizovuta, sichoncho?
Chinthu chimene Sam anatsutsa Elon, pa mbiri, chinali chakuti mwina akufuna kupulumutsa anthu, koma ngati ali iye. Mtundu wa ego chigawo chofuna kupambana, chomwe ndi chimango chomwe Sam amagwiritsa ntchito nthawi zonse, ndikuti iyi ndi imodzi mwamabuku a mbiri yakale, izi zitha kusintha chilichonse. Kotero kotero, ngakhale pamwamba ndi kupitirira "muyenera kuthyola mazira ochepa" maganizo a mabizinesi ambiri a Silicon Valley, pali, m'maganizo mwa anthu ena omwe amatsogolera AI, ndikuganiza, kulingalira kokwanira kwa kugwa kulikonse.
Ndi kuyiwala kuthyola mazira. Ndi / ndikuganiza ambiri ofufuza zachitetezo anganene kuti zitha kuwononga dziko, kuwononga dziko, ndikuphwanya mamiliyoni a anthu omwe ntchito zawo ndi chitetezo zimakhazikika - ndizomwe zimasiyana nazo. Ndipamene ndimatseka, ndikulingalira zankhani iyi, ndikukhulupirira kuti izi ndi zoposa Sam Altman. Izi ndi zamakampani omwe ali osakhazikika komanso vuto lomwe likukulirakulira ku America lomwe silingathe kuliletsa.
Inde. Chabwino, tinali ndi chiyembekezo kumeneko, koma ndikuganiza kuti awa ndi malo abwino oti tisiye.
[Akuseka] Malizitsani motsika.
Kumene. Ndi nkhani iliyonse yabwino, kwenikweni. Mlandu wa Musk-Altman ukubwera. Ndikuganiza kuti tiphunzira zambiri apa. Ndikukayikira kuti ndikufuna kulankhula nanunso. Ronan Farrow, zikomo kwambiri chifukwa chokhala pa Decoder.
Zikomo.
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