Ukuphela kweXesha kuQoqosho oluQhelekileyo Kwi-SXSW, i-futurist Amy Webb yenza isibhengezo esinesibindi: ukusweleka kwengxelo yonyaka yetekhnoloji. Esi sibhengezo esivela kumhlalutyi okhokelayo oye wanceda ekuchazeni uhlobo lubonisa utshintsho olukhulu. Iinkokeli ezithembele kula maxwebhu angatshintshiyo ngoku zisemngciphekweni wokuphoswa libali elikhulu, elibaluleke ngakumbi elibumba ikamva lethu. Ingxelo yonyaka yesiko, iWebb ithi, iphelelwe lixesha. Kwihlabathi leenguqu ezikhawulezayo, ezinxibeleleneyo, umfanekiso wonyaka awukwazi ukubamba amandla aguqukayo adlalayo. Lo mzuzu ufuna indlela entsha yobuchule bokubona kwangaphambili.
Kutheni ingxelo yeTekhnoloji yoNyaka isilele Kangangeminyaka, abaphathi bebelindele iingxelo zonyaka ukuseta i-ajenda yabo. La maxwebhu adwelise ubugcisa obuvelayo kunye neenguqu kuluntu. Banikela imbono ethuthuzelayo, ukuba yenziwe lula, ngekamva. Nangona kunjalo, le modeli ineempazamo ezibulalayo. Iphatha iinkqubo ezinzima, eziguqukayo njengoluhlu olulula lokukhangela. Oku kudala inkohliso eyingozi yokulawula nokuqonda.
Iintsilelo eziNtathu ezibalulekileyo UWebb uchonge ukusilela okungundoqo okwenza ingxelo yonyaka ingasebenzi:
Isifinyezo vs. Umfanekiso oshukumayo: Ingxelo yonyaka sisikhokelo esinye. Iphosa i-arc ebalisayo yendlela iintsingiselo ezingqubana ngayo, ukudibanisa, kunye nokuvela ngexesha lokwenyani. Uhlalutyo lweNqanaba eliphezulu: Uluhlu lweentsingiselo zihlala zingenalo uhlalutyo olunzulu lwe-causal. Babonisa "yintoni" kodwa abafane bachaze "kutheni" okanye "yintoni ke" kumashishini athile. I-Actionable Insight Gap: Ezi ngxelo azifane ziguqulelwe kwincwadi yokudlala enobuchule obucacileyo. Ziyazisa kodwa azixhobisi iinkokeli ukuba zithathe amanyathelo aqinisekileyo.
IiNkokeli zamaBali amakhulu zilahlekile Ngokuzilungisa kwiindlela ezihleliweyo, iinkokeli aziyihoyi eyona meta-trends. Le yimisinga esisiseko enika amandla utshintsho kumphakamo womphezulu. Bamele ibali elikhulu lokwenyani. IWebb igxininisa ukuba ikamva alikho malunga nobuchwepheshe obubodwa njenge-AI okanye i-quantum computing. Imalunga nokudibana kunye nokusebenzisana kwemimandla emininzi. Oku kudala amathuba angalindelekanga kunye nemingcipheko yenkqubo.
Key Meta-Trends ifuna ingqalelo Ukujonga le nyaniso intsha, ugxininiso kufuneka lutshintshele kula mandla adibeneyo:
Ukuchazwa ngokutsha kweComputational of everything: Amandla okubala aguqula njani amabala ukusuka kwibhayoloji ukuya kwisayensi yezinto eziphathekayo, ukudala iziseko ezitsha zokusungula izinto ezintsha. Izivumelwano ezitsha zeTrasti: Ubudlelwane obuphuhlayo phakathi kwabantu, amaziko, kunye neenkcukacha. Oku kubandakanya ubumfihlo, ukungafihli, kunye neenkqubo ezintsha zokuqinisekisa ezifana ne-blockchain. IiNkqubo zeHlabathi eziQinisekisiweyo kwakhona: Ukumiswa ngokutsha kwamakhonkco obonelelo, ikamva lomsebenzi, kunye nohlenga-hlengiso lomanyano lwezoqoqosho nezopolitiko kwihlabathi lasemva kobhubhani.
Ukwakha isakhono sokubona kwangaphambili okunamandla Ukubulala ingxelo yonyaka ayikokungahoyi ikamva. Imalunga nokuzibandakanya nayo ngobukrelekrele ngakumbi nangokuqhubekayo. Imibutho kufuneka yakhe umsipha wokubona kwangaphambili okuqhubekayo. Oku kufuna ukusuka kusetyenziso olungazenzisiyo ukuya kuphononongo olusebenzayo. Kuthetha ukuskena imiqondiso, uqikelelo lovavanyo, kunye nokuqhuba ukulinganisa okucwangcisiweyo rhoqo.
Amanyathelo Okwenza Imbonakalo Yakho Yesicwangciso-qhinga
Misela iskena esiqhubekayo: Nikela izixhobo zokubeka iliso kwiimpawu ezibuthathaka kubo bonke ubuchwephesha, uluntu, kunye ne-geopolitics unyaka wonke. Uqhagamshelo lwemephu: Sebenzisa iindlela zokucinga ukuqonda indlela iintsingiselo ezichaphazela ngayo kwaye zandise enye kwenye. Khangela iindawo zokuhlangana. Isicwangciso semeko ngokuSebenzayo: Phuhlisa ikamva elibambekayo, hayi nje ingqikelelo yomda omnye. Uxinzelelo-vavanya iqhinga lakho ngakunye. UkuThembela kwiZigqibo: Yenza uhlalutyo olujolise kwixesha elizayo lube ligalelo elisisinyanzelo kuzo zonke iintlanganiso eziphambili zobuchule nokwabiwa kwezibonelelo.
Isiphelo: Ukusuka kwiNgxelo engatshintshiyo ukuya kwiQhinga lokuPhila Umnxeba ka-Amy Webb wokuphelisa ingxelo yendlela yonyaka lukhwelo lokuvusa ubunkokeli obungakhathaliyo. Ikamva aliseyiyo indawo ekude ukuba iphononongwe kanye ngonyaka. Yimeko ephilayo, ephefumlayo kuzo zonke izigqibo ezenziweyo namhlanje. Ukukhuphisana, iinkokeli kufuneka zamkele indlela eguqukayo necwangcisiweyo yokubona kwangaphambili. Lahla uxwebhu olungatshintshiyo kwaye wakhe inkqubo efunda, ehlengahlengisayo, kwaye ilindeleke ngexesha lokwenyani. Ngaba umbutho wakho ulungele ukuhamba ngaphaya koluhlu kwaye ubone ibali lokwenyani? Phonononga ukuba iSeemless inokukunceda njani ukuba wakhe indlela eqhubekayo yokubona kwangaphambili.
