I-Battle for Prediction Market Legitimacy Iminyaka emithathu enzima, uLuana Lopes Lara nethimba lakhe e-Kalshi baqhuba umkhankaso ongapheli wokwenza kube semthethweni izimakethe zokubikezela eziphikisana kakhulu zaseMelika. Uhambo lwaluhilela imizamo eqinile yokunxenxa, izithiyo eziyinkimbinkimbi zokulawula, futhi ekugcineni, icala eliyingqophamlando elibhekene nabalawuli benhlangano. Izimakethe zokubikezela sekuyisikhathi eside ziyisihloko esiphikisanayo emibuthanweni yokulawulwa kwezimali. Lezi zimakethe zivumela ababambiqhaza ukuthi babheje ngomphumela wemicimbi kusukela okhethweni kuya ezinkomba zezomnotho. Abasekeli baphikisa ukuthi banikeza imininingwane ebalulekile emathubeni esikhathi esizayo.
Kungani Izimakethe Zokubikezela Zibalulekile Izimakethe zokubikezela zisebenza njengamathuluzi anamandla okuhlanganisa ulwazi. Basebenzisa ubuhlakani besixuku ukuze babikezele imiphumela ngokunemba okumangalisayo. Ngokungafani nezindlela zokuvota ezijwayelekile, lezi zimakethe zikhuthaza ababambiqhaza ukuthi bacwaninge ngokucophelela ngaphambi kokubheja. Ingxabano isukela ekufananeni kwazo nemisebenzi yokugembula. Nokho, abasekeli bagcizelela ukubaluleka kwabo ngokwesayensi nezomnotho. Impi ka-Kalshi imele isikhathi esibalulekile sokusungula izinto ezintsha kwezezimali nezimiso zemakethe yamahhala.
Isimo Sezomthetho Nezinselele Zokulawula Abalawuli be-Federal baqale basenqaba isiphakamiso sika-Kalshi, becaphuna ukukhathazeka mayelana nokukhohlisa kwemakethe kanye nokulimala komphakathi. I-Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ibambelele ekutheni izimakethe zokubikezela zingenza imisebenzi yokugembula engekho emthethweni. Ithimba lezomthetho likaKalshi lethule ubufakazi obubonisa amaphuzu abalulekile amaningana:
Izimakethe zokubikezela zinokusekelwa kwezemfundo okuvela kosomnotho abahamba phambili Bahlinzeka ngokuhlaziywa kwemizwa yesikhathi sangempela okungatholakali ngezinye izindlela Ukwengamela okufanele kungavimbela ukuhlukumeza kuyilapho kugcinwa izinzuzo Imithetho ekhona ingashintshwa esikhundleni sokudala imigoqo emisha
I-Turning Point: Icala Elibhekene Nabalawuli Ngemva kokuqeda amandla iziteshi zokuphatha, uKalshi wathatha isinyathelo esingakaze sibonwe sokumangalela abalawuli benhlangano. Le mpi yomthetho imele ubungozi obaliwe obebungaqeda ukusebenza kwenkampani ngokuphelele. Esikhundleni sokushiya umbono wabo, u-Lopes Lara wakhetha ukulwa. Icala liphikisa ukuthi abalawuli beqa igunya labo futhi bavimbezela emisha. Igqamise ukuthi izimakethe zokuqagela zingathuthukisa kanjani izinqubo zentando yeningi ngokunikeza izibikezelo zokhetho ezisobala. Icala lidonse ukunaka kwezinhlangano ezilwela inkululeko kanye nabameli bezobuchwepheshe ezweni lonke.
Imithelela Ebanzi Yokusungula Ezezimali Umzabalazo ka-Kalshi ukhombisa ukungezwani okukhulu phakathi kobuchwepheshe obusafufusa kanye nezinhlaka zokulawula ezimisiwe. Leli cala liphakamisa imibuzo ebalulekile mayelana nokuthi ukuqanjwa kwezimali kufanele kubuswe kanjani esikhathini sedijithali. Izimboni eziningi zibukele lesi sibonelo eduze:
Amapulatifomu e-Blockchain kanye ne-cryptocurrency Izinhlelo zokuhweba eziqhutshwa yi-AI I-crowdfunding kanye nezimakethe zokuboleka kontanga kuya kontanga Izicelo zezimali ezihlukaniselwe izwe
Kusho Ukuthini Lokhu Kosomabhizinisi Bakusasa Umphumela wempi ka-Kalshi ungase ukhuthaze noma uvimbele abasunguli bezimali bakusasa. Isinqumo esivunayo singabonisa ukuthi izinhlelo zokulawula zingajwayelana nobuchwepheshe obusha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukugcinwa kwemithetho eqinile kungacindezela ukusungulwa phesheya kwezilwandle. Osomabhizinisi abacabangela amabhizinisi afanayo kufanele baqaphele izici ezimbalwa ezibalulekile. Umeluleki wezomthetho ofanele ubalulekile kusukela ezigabeni zokuqala. Ukwakha ubudlelwano nezinhlangano ezilawulayo kungavimbela ukungqubuzana kwakamuva. Okubaluleke kakhulu, ukuphikelela kuvame ukufakazela ukuthi kubalulekile lapho kubekela inselele amasistimu amisiwe.
Isiphetho: Ikusasa Lezimakethe Zokubikezela Impi ka-Kalshi yeminyaka emithathu imele isikhathi sokubikezela izimakethe eMelika. Ngenkathi ukulwa kwezomthetho kuqhubeka, ingxoxo isivele isishintshele ekuboneni izinzuzo zabo ezingaba khona. Njengoba u-Lopes Lara abonisa, ngezinye izikhathi ukuphonsela inselelo isimo esikhona kuyadingeka ukuze kuqhubekele phambili. Kulabo abanentshisekelo emisha yemakethe kanye nokuziphendukela kwemvelo kokulawula, leli cala linikeza izifundo ezibalulekile. Bheka izindatshana zethu ezihlobene ku-Isethi ye-Lego Mario engcono kakhulu yokugubha uSuku lukaMar10! kanye Nendlela Yokukala Umthelela Wezici. Ukuze uthole imininingwane eyengeziwe kubuchwepheshe obuphambili, funda ngalawa ma-headphone anikeza incazelo entsha egameni elithi 'cushy'. Thola ukuthi i-Seemless ingasiza kanjani ukuzulazula ezindaweni zokulawula eziyinkimbinkimbi ngenkathi ikhuthaza ukuqamba okusha.
